Quote from: [Coins!] on June 18, 2011, 06:23:34 PM

Quote from: MoonShadow on June 18, 2011, 04:20:20 PM

A simple over/under straight bet. Based on your calculations, at the calculated date. If the difficulty is, say 98% or higher of your projected amount, you win. If lower than 98% or your projected difficulty, I win.

Five bitcoins is the wager.

Well as you can see here I do not have 5.0 bitcoins : p (That is the address in my signature too, by the way).

I may only end up with 5 bitcoins just as the 2016th block is hashed in this current 877k difficulty round. Based on my calculations I'll only end up mining a grand total of 9 bit coins in the next 6 difficulties (55.8 days at the 9.3 days-per-difficulty at 50% increases from above). So wagering more than half my projected wealth seems a bit too steep for me : ( 15 days worth of hashing!

What projected date, though.

Block explorer lists the next difficulty at 1200518.48071190, which is a 36% increase. To be 50%, it would need to be 131k. Obviously the lower the earlier difficulties, the less likely it is that my 50% calculations hold up by the 6th difficulty round~

The wager can be any amount of bitcoins that you wish to commit. It's not about the amount for myself, but the fun of it.

9.3 days * 6 difficulty adjustments = 55.8 days. So make it 60 days from tomorrow, Sunday June 18th at noon Eastern time is when the bet is final.

Bet starts with the next difficulty setting the bar, but I'll lay out the difficulty over/under based upon the estimate presently on bitcoinwatch.com.

((((((1,052,445 next difficulty, estimated) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * 1.5) * .98

11988006.328125 * .98 = 140838049808701.7442626953125, or over 130 million times higher hashing power than the next estimated difficulty? Wow, did I do that right?

So the over under difficulty would be 140,838,049,808,701 dropping the decimals, assuming that the estimated difficulty is the actual difficulty.

Feel free to check my math, please.

EDIT: I definately did something wrong here. Yup, decimal screwup. 11748246.2015625 is 98% of 11988006.328125. So the over under would be 11,748,246. About ten times the next estimated difficulty. That sounds more like it.