Quote from: ryantw on July 07, 2013, 07:06:34 PM

I have lurked on bitcointalk for a while now and recently made an account to post a couple things in the Securities section related to some things I saw being mismanaged. I have been recently viewing the Speculation section of this forum and decided to start a thread due to some of the stuff I have been reading. A lot of threads have been bearish, thinking that bitcoin is going to fall drastically. I don't know why it seems that the Speculation section is so bearish, maybe people can't afford to buy bitcoin at its current price so they want it to drop, they are pessimistic people in general, they just want something to fail, they like negative press or they are actually correct in their bearish predictions. The psychological aspect of the Speculation forum is a whole different topic

Prediction is almost impossible

No one can predict where bitcoin is going to be more than a month from now. There are way too many external factors that affect bitcoin coupled with the fact that it is traded 24/7. Future event such as hacking, government interference, industry adoption are just some of the unpredictable effects on the value of bitcoin.

Since I believe it is impossible to predict what the price will be in the future, I will just deal with what I am seeing now, as of July 7th, 2013. I replied the same thing in another thread, but decided to make a new thread afterwards. The walls and price is based on Mt.Gox. Gox is the main price point for bitcoin and other exchanges trade based on Gox's price. Trades on other exchanges coincide with Gox's trading almost in perfect sync. Until another market has more volume than Gox, it will be the price point for a while.

The current price stunting

Are for the current price on July 7th, 2013: it is being stunted. Someone is keeping the price low and buying cheap coins through placing bids lower than their ask walls. They are hoarding cheap coins by getting people to sell into their bids and buying coins lower than their ask walls. They are pretty blatant about it, even placing the walls at $1 intervals. If they decide they have reached their desired amount of coins and then lift their ask walls, bitcoin will rise, which is what they want after buying lots of cheap bitcoins.

Whomever is doing this is pretty clever as they are also doing a couple of other things to stunt the price. If you think the price is going to drop, it will not. The ask walls are keeping the price low. This is actually the perfect time to do something like this. A lot of money has left Mt.Gox lately, so it isn't as difficult as it was a month ago to manipulate the price.

Hiatus effect

The vast majority of the recent bearish threads have completely ignored the MtGox withdrawal hiatus effect on bitcoin. Look at the price the day before the announcement, then look at the sharp downturn immediately after. The withdrawal hiatus without a doubt had an effect. I was actually surprised that bitcoin didn't drop much further than it has.

Surprisingly, and good for Bitcoin bulls, Gox was right on time with their 2 week hiatus. After 2 weeks the hiatus is gone and people can withdrawal money. The hiatus effect is interesting for a couple of reasons. Gox will never release the figures, but it would be interesting to know how much money was immediately withdrawn after the hiatus was lifted. Another very interesting figure to know would be how much money is going to come into the Gox now that the hiatus is gone and confidence in Gox is increased. The most interesting figure would be how much money is going to enter as well as leave MtGox after this holiday weekend. Gox lifted their hiatus on July 4th, a Thursday and holiday. Banks in the US were closed on Thursday, open on Friday, then closed over the weekend. Getting a wire in before this weekend may have been tough, and risky since the hiatus was just lifted the previous day.

So right now the amount of USD in Gox is most likely much lower than it was a month ago. This makes it easy for someone to keep the price low, but not too low.

Invested infrastructure in Bitcoin

For many who think Bitcoin can drop below $20, I encourage you to consider the actual amount of money that has been invested in companies surrounding bitcoin. Millions have been invested in startups such as Bitpay, Coinbase and others. The amount of money that has taken an invested interest in Bitcoin would be very interested in not seeing it drop too low. $5 million was invested in Bitpay alone. There are much larger pockets backing Bitcoin than in 2011 and a price below $50 would certainly see some large buys.

My opinion

Once the dust settles on the hiatus and people feel confident enough to deposit USD into Gox, expect the price to rise. Deposits=buys. Gox isn't a bank, depositing money means you will at some point buy Bitcoin. People worried about not being able to withdrawal their USD may slowly regain confidence, redeposit and buy once again. I have purchased quite a few bitcoin myself this past weekend and I believe strongly in the price increasing.

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time

Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you