Quote from: ffssixtynine on July 19, 2013, 10:14:30 AM

Quote from: Vbs on July 19, 2013, 10:11:26 AM

The pull/push of shares was because on Bitfunder all shares receive dividends, so in order for only the outstanding to receive them, he had to pull the wall, de-issue them, pay the dividend, re-issue them and post them again.

Thanks - good to know. This forum really needs a thanks button. Or a bitcoin tip bot. (tho why 150->250k?)

This isn't an AsicMiner thread so I'll limit this to an ActiveMiner comparison. AM is 'established' (for Bitcoin!) so the share has a value beyond the dividend. It's seen as a safe place to store money, has room for more share gains (partly because of this), and will earn an income. ActiveMiner's share price is based upon the risk/reward of the business plan, so future dividend predictions are vital.

I'm thinking each one of those Avalon clones would cost something from $1,000-$2,000 in reference board materials + assembly, so let's say $1,500*63 = $94,500 in total, which is about $94,500/$90/0.0025 = ~420,000 shares at 0.0025 and $90/BTC. Considering the leftover funds, the 250,000 shares on BF should be enough to cover that expense in full and it's very important for them to be 100% assembled as soon as the chips arrive.

These are my latest estimations. I really think what will make ActM push forward at record speed is the bulk chip sales. Grin

Quote from: Vbs on July 18, 2013, 02:54:38 AM

New update, this time I considered some hardware selling estimates, as well as the impact of Ken's 15M shares on the whole operation.

(any errors found, just shout! Grin

)

Considerations:

Mining
Klondikes mining at August (worst case)
Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center
November/December (worst case) hashrate increase from the high-volume process (low-volume is not worth it for just a ~month difference), using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips
Total network hashrate includes ActM's mining plus hardware sold to other parties (200% markup)
Sales
Sales volume is really hard to predict. I just assumed it to be 2x the profits of mining, which I still think is really on the low side, as ActM is gonna also sell chips in bulk. For example, Avalon in getting ready to ship its ~BTC164,000 in bulk chips. There is definitely money to be made in bulk chip sales!

Conclusions:

Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around December/January
The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable
As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further
Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible
The effect of hardware sales is just mind boggling