Quote from: Vycid on August 12, 2013, 02:32:38 AM

Quote from: conv3rsion on August 12, 2013, 01:25:14 AM

Quote from: Vycid on August 11, 2013, 11:58:45 PM

Quote from: pankkake on August 11, 2013, 11:48:27 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 11, 2013, 11:36:48 PM

The sales of these blades at about 1 BTC/GH/s means that AM's existing 50 TH/s hashrate can be valued at no more than 50,000 BTC...

You're not investing in hardware, it's not a PMB. You're investing in a bunch of people who can deliver.

Doesn't help that everybody and their grandma is launching their own ASIC line in the near future, then. BFL and Avalon have proven to be fuckups, but every time a new company comes to market (KNC, BitFury, HashFast, Cointerra), you're betting that company will fail to take any market share. It's an unenviable position.

So the fuck what? There were 4 companies last year starting to develop asics. One failed completely, and two others still can't ship for shit a year later, regardless of taking in millions of dollars. By the time some other serious competitors actually do arise (if it happens), AM will be on 2nd or 3rd gen tech and have much more mature infrastructure (resellers, etc).

So the basis of your argument is that ASICMiner is a miracle, and all the other companies are going to go the way of BFL/Avalon?

That's a bold gamble, considering the starting cash that some of these guys are getting (Cointerra, for example, has experienced industry professionals and $1.5M in private equity, not preorders). And the "2nd or 3rd gen tech" argument is silly, since the new startups are going straight for those nodes, they're not starting at gen 1.

The reality is that the barrier to entry for new ASIC companies is quite low. In my opinion, either ASICMiner was a lighting strike, or things are going to turn sour for them.

But hey, I've been saying this since 2.5 BTC a share. I'm wrong so far.

The basis of my argument is that you are ignoring the advantages that AM currently has and continues to strengthen because of their current position AND that there have always been a number of competitors who have failed to execute (for whatever reason). Bitfair did a nice job of highlighting some of these advantages.

I'm not saying that AM will maintain their current market share (and I also don't think that their current stock price requires that they do, unless someone else can return better than 30-40% APR for six straight months), but I am saying that the NUMBER of competitors is largely irrelevant.