Quote from: Rebelution on August 30, 2013, 04:23:24 AM

Wow, 4 people that think they know statistics because they know what a distribution is and can google simple statistics concepts. But really you arent thinking critically enough.

1. Why do you guys think that AMs rate of finding blocks is poission distributed? It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed. That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

It's a non-homogenous poisson process wrt time. If the hashrate is kept stable, then it's a homogeneous poisson process with respect to time.

Quote from: Rebelution on August 30, 2013, 04:23:24 AM

2. Many of you are missing a crucial point. The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period. Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand. The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row. I really hope you guys see why... Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try. Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation. Do you see now?

Yes, the distribution's CDF is different to the expected value. So?

Quote from: Rebelution on August 30, 2013, 04:50:06 AM

Simple answer: we don't know because AM's hash rate does not conform to any common distributions.

Yes it does. I can prove it with 95% confidence. Would you care to make a bet? I'll place 100 btc of mine against 10 btc of yours that I'm correct, and that:

1. When ASICMiner's hashrate is stable, the number of blocks per time period is a homogenous Poisson process. Blocks per unit time will be poisson distributed and time between blocks exponentially distributed.
2. When ASICMiner's hashrate is not stable, the number of blocks per time period is a non-homogenous Poisson process. Time between blocks will be only exponentially distributed if the cumulative intensity function is used to estimate a "time stretch", which is then applied to the actual block solve times.

So, want to take me up on my bet?

Quote from: Rebelution on August 30, 2013, 04:23:24 AM

You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general. At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people. But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.

On behalf of all pseudo-intellectual condescenders, I apologise.