Quote from: organofcorti on August 30, 2013, 05:38:58 AM

It's a non-homogenous poisson process wrt time. If the hashrate is kept stable, then it's a homogeneous poisson process with respect to time.

LOL no shit you idiot. If it we knew that the hash rate was constant, this entire discussion would be irrelevant. We would just be able to more accurately predict the hash rate as we collected more data. Nonstationary data would not be an issue.

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Yes, the distribution's CDF is different to the expected value. So?

Its a bigger issue than that. The whole point is that calculating the probabilities of mining 0 blocks for a GIVEN PERIOD is different than calculating the probability that a 6 hour period will occur with 0 blocks mined. Please see coin flipping analogy... This is not hard.

I do admit that I am assuming that DnT is making the calculations so that he can predict the probability that a given 6 hour period will occur with 0 blocks. I agree that his calculations are reasonable for expected value calculations for a specific 6 hour period. They are not reasonable for the conclusions he is trying to make.

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Yes it does. I can prove it with 95% confidence. Would you care to make a bet? I'll place 100 btc of mine against 10 btc of yours that I'm correct, and that:

This statement does not make much sense. Either you can "prove" it to be true or you cannot. It is binary.

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1. When ASICMiner's hashrate is stable, the number of blocks per time period is a homogenous Poisson process.

Again, no shit. The entire point of calculating the probabilities is that we know that the hash rate is NOT stable.

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So, want to take me up on my bet?

Your illogical assumptions that contradict the entire point of performing the calculations make it a fairly nonsensical bet. I agree, if you assume a constant hash rate, then yes, the results are poission distributed.

Quote from: Rebelution on August 30, 2013, 04:23:24 AM

You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general. At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people. But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.

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On behalf of all pseudo-intellectual condescenders, I apologise.

Not sure if sincere, but OK. I would have preferred a community full of intelligent people and stimulating discussion, but I am OK with these dynamics as well. It just does not bode well for mainstream acceptance... Hopefully another cyprtocurrency with better PR and community won't capture bitcoin's position as market leader. But unfortunately with a community of condescending idiots like you, I fear that may not be the case. I hope I am wrong, and I hope the cryptocurrency that finally wins will not be invented by a bank or huge corporation.

Regardless you clearly already took the gloves off with your first post which is fine with me. Heated debate with personal attacks is also fine with me. "Come at me bro."