Quote from: dooglus on September 25, 2013, 09:55:59 AM

Quote from: Rampion on September 25, 2013, 09:44:20 AM

IMO his biggest advantage compared to the house is that he is a) willing to lose insane amounts of coins without stopping; b) he seems quite disciplined, and he quits as soon as he is winning. Obviously the house cannot "stop when its winning"

I'm not sure about that. I've seen it mentioned a few times recently, also in connection with how the Kelly criterion doesn't apply to Just-Dice because the house can't decide when to stop playing.

Nakowa doesn't stop playing. He pauses to sleep when he's ahead, but then he plays again. As far as the numbers are concerned his bets are a single continuous stream. He's playing right now. He didn't "quit when he was ahead", he just paused for some hours.

Checking the logs, actually he's not playing at the moment, because he busted:

Quote

09:47:49 bet #138902848: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:489187 profit:-0.01000000 bal:33.20237624 n:400 percent tot:133.20237624
09:47:52 bet #138902894: 2 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:499765 profit:-2.00000000 bal:31.20237624 n:401 percent tot:131.20237624
09:47:54 bet #138902932: 4 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:247064 profit:-4.00000000 bal:27.20237624 n:402 percent tot:127.20237624
09:47:58 bet #138902981: 16 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:75006 profit:-16.00000000 bal:11.20237624 n:403 percent tot:111.20237624
09:48:01 bet #138903016: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:855437 profit:0.01000000 bal:11.21237624 n:404 percent tot:111.21237624
09:48:04 bet #138903076: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:559395 profit:0.01000000 bal:11.22237624 n:405 percent tot:111.22237624
09:48:07 bet #138903121: 3 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:202450 profit:-3.00000000 bal:8.22237624 n:406 percent tot:108.22237624
09:48:17 bet #138903160: 6 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:266205 profit:-6.00000000 bal:2.22237624 n:407 percent tot:102.22237624
09:48:21 bet #138903215: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:804467 profit:0.01000000 bal:2.23237624 n:408 percent tot:102.23237624
09:48:22 bet #138903241: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:180762 profit:-0.01000000 bal:2.22237624 n:409 percent tot:102.22237624
09:48:28 bet #138903329: 2.22237624 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:49616 profit:-2.22237624 bal:0.00000000 n:410 percent tot:100.00000000
09:52:31 chat: I'm still 100 up.

don't panic.
09:53:43 chat: I won't bet big though. since the house edge is going to raise when profit larger than 50.

So he's 'paused', waiting for his next deposit to confirm.

But my point is, being able to chose when to stop isn't an advantage for the players compared to the site, unless they really stop, and nobody with a similar bankroll appears to take their place.

Yes, I guess you're absolutely right - he never "quits", he just keeps playing over and over. Did you already increase the house edge for bigger bets?

One question: you have done thorough analysis of dice sites like SatoshiDice, you know math, does this looks like cheating to you? I didn't do such a thorough analysis, but what Nakowa is doing doesn't look like cheating to me, just variance.