Quote from: cellard on July 09, 2018, 02:26:18 PM

Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 11:20:08 PM

Quote from: cellard on July 08, 2018, 10:55:20 PM

Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

Source? For 'will outperform' (not 'has outperformed') of course... lots of fuzzy thinking on this forum.

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How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

I didn't say $400 next year. I said it's heading for $400 in 18 months. Maybe two years. Maybe $600 or even $800. Look at the curve - it shows the main idea: down, down, down. Feel free to replace my guesswork with your guesswork on the details. I'm just trying to point out the big picture implications of what we now know.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

If I could reliably buy a put on BC for 18 months out, I'd put $50K or $100K into it. I'd probably price it at $800 to have some margin. The profit would still be huge. However, not only do I know nothing about such maneuvers, others have looked into it and say it's impractical. A Forbes writer did a detailed piece on that several years ago, pointing out some hidden gotchas with crypto. Can't find the link now but it certainly put me off.

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How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?

Actually, I'm betting all my money that the mutual funds will do better. Over the next 18 months I expect the market to return a 15% profit, not an 90% loss. And as I noted earlier, my money won't be outright stolen, and I won't be cheated. Those are huge benefits. And I sleep well at night.

I understand that you consider actively betting that you are right by not holding any bitcoins and by putting your money in mutual funds, but that's not how it works.

In order to put your money where your mouth is, you have to bet against someone here that your prediction will be right. So are you willing to bet money in your prediction? 18 months from now, $800 or lower (you initially said $400 but you are raising now to double that... okay). Bitbet can be used to automate the 18 month countdown. Im sure you can find some rich guys in this forum willing to take the bet and make a lot of money on you being right and us being wrong. Are you down?

I disagree as we are discussing on the thread about the down future of Bitcoin which is totally irrelevant because if the Bitcoin had to die or to finish the game then it would happened before and it will not make any progress in situations it is.

The future is well explaining by its average data which is on the increase trend reflecting its success with the passage of time. the current situations are not permanent and we have seen downfalls like this many times in the past so it recovered again and will recover this time.