Quote from: defxor on September 01, 2011, 06:16:16 AM

Quote from: d'aniel on August 31, 2011, 11:07:15 PM

I guess my point then is that your data set is probably biased heavily in favour of traders that don't have informational edges.

I still don't understand what the point you're trying to make is. Are you talking about trading in the marketplace or cheating? You seem to seriously confuse the two.

Quote from: skubeedooo on September 01, 2011, 12:02:25 AM

So I hope I've given pretty strong arguments that patterns exist, and that some people can use them to make money, even if you can't necessarily prove it using statistical means

"I guess" and "I believe" is considered to be quite poor data.

Fact: No trader ever has outperformed chance.

The hell? Of course they do! All the time!

Some glaring examples:

arbitrageurs
short sellers who uncover dirt on companies
traders who uncover market manipulation
those who trade on insider information

You can reliably find 'alpha' by having an informational edge.

I strongly suggest you read the Tao of Alpha link posted above.