Anyhow, now I am feeling like I am just repeating myself in various ways.. so I am not sure what points differ between you and me, except maybe different ways of framing the issues and the dynamics and likelihood that we do not really disagree about a lot of the underlying dynamics, motivations or distinctions, but we have differing ways of expressing such
I still think there is a fundamental difference in our views
And not on individuals (where we seem to agree), and not even so much on institutions (this is kinda a gray zone where the possible disagreement is vague and not defined) as on governments. My point is that major governments like the US, China, Russia will never accept crypto as a full-fledged currency (other than an economic weapon against each other and the rest of the world)
That would mean undercutting their fiat currencies by letting the competitor in. In simple terms, this is not going to happen as this has little if anything to do with the "honey badger" (and more with politics, so they can't be forced). Some governments may in fact embrace crypto in due course (and that's good) but they won't matter in the grand scheme of things. In these circumstances institutions won't have a say
I cannot disagree with any of that, and really if we are speculating about 1-5 years down the road, that is fairly immediate term, and we can only attempt to realistically predict for short periods at a time, because what large governments do next will in part depend upon what others are doing
It looks like there are no others
I mean significant and important others. It is the major world powers like the ones already mentioned that directly determine the world policies, either directly or indirectly via institutions like the IMF (in the latter case regarding financial matters). Also, I wouldn't overestimate that "mandate" that people gave to these governments. Obviously, they consist of people, and it is this small group of people who took control over the governments (let's cut the crap about democracy here). And if they keep their financial and monetary policies sane overall (read, they don't hyperinflate fiat), there is little to no threat to them from crypto
If we are talking about what governments are doing now in respect to bitcoin, we can attempt to measure it, and likely they are not doing very much because bitcoin remains too small, and that is back to my point. On the other hand, even though I am proclaiming bitcoin to be so damned small that neither large governments nor large institutions are acting, they are composed of individuals and smaller entities that increasingly recognize bitcoin to be important
These people have everything they need in life, and above everything else they have power, virtually unlimited power. Why would they care about Bitcoin other than it potentially being pain in the ass? Bitcoin is to take power from them, so why should they really think in favor of it? But as you say yourself, it is too negligible yet to be that pain for real