Quote from: Strike Eagle 26 on April 18, 2019, 04:39:14 PM

Quote from: MA_talk on April 18, 2019, 06:21:24 AM

Quote from: Strike Eagle 26 on April 17, 2019, 09:17:16 PM

MA_Talk You claim to have been following Armstrong for decades yet have misunderstood even what a panic cycle is please explain to me again since you are such an expert?

.....

Thats not true all you have to do is type into google: "panic cycle" Armstrong Economics
You can also go to his website and type in the search bar. "panic cycle" and you be able to read just about everything he ever said about it.

In summary
70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

"The Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and then penetrate the previous low"

So for example The month of February 2019 was a panic cycle on the Dow since it was a big move in one direction. I recall many posts of you saying the month of Feb was not a panic cycle

"The major Cycle of Political Change appears to be the duration of 224 years In which there are 26 periods of 8.615 years."
Source(http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/how-all-systems-can-collapse-overnight-709.pdf)

Just not so sure about your calculation on the 26 year frequency other than it is 8.6 x 3 = 25.8

StrikeEagle,

Based on the above definition of panic cycle, and using Feb as a reference for a fast one way move, I used 3.5% as the monthly gain or loss.

Below is what I did using DIA as the Dow Jones for the checking the validity of February panic cycle, and all of these months SHOULD have been called by Armstrong as panic cycles, But I know for sure he did NOT call 2019 Jan.
2019 Feb
2019 Jan
2018 Dec
2018 Oct, outside month (exceeding both low & high of prior month)
2018 Jul
2018 Mar
2018 Feb
2018 Jan
2017 Nov
2017 Oct

Between 2017 October to 2019 April (in 29 months), 10 months above out of 29 months SHOULD have been called by Armstrong as panic cycles. That is MORE than one third of the time. That showed that if your criteria for stating Feb 2019 was a panic cycle, that is simply AWFULLY loose. As an exaggeration, it's almost like predicting that the next person that comes through the door will be male. Even without doing much, anybody could just keep saying that every month will be a PANIC CYCLE, would have gotten more than 1/3 correct.

Furthermore, based on your breakdown on percentage, such "panic cycle" information is extremely hard to be used for making any money even when the information is accurate, because Armstrong never tells you the direction of the market, or whether it is going to be a high or low. So 30% of that breakdown, even assuming that you know the direction instead of an outside month, cannot be traded because it could be an outside month, where you could get killed on both directions. The better trade should have been betting on the 70% of the time as an outside month, and LONG both call/put with strike price closer to middle range, I believe. That would have been a losing trade, given your loose definition.

If Armstrong's definition for these terms are such loose (so that he can be "correct" time after time), the information is simply NOT very helpful.

By the way, don't ask me why the raw data downloaded from Yahoo had so many fractional digits.

10/1/2017   224.190002   234.699997   224.020004   233.630005   226.153091   50038700   4.38%
11/1/2017   234.600006   243.490005   232.649994   242.839996   235.254181   61406200   3.94%
12/1/2017   243.139999   248.610001   239.410004   247.380005   240.227097   73664300   1.87%
1/1/2018   248.339996   265.929993   247.229996   261.440002   254.461792   102194100   5.68%
2/1/2018   259.950012   262.899994   233.759995   250.199997   243.656693   183041700   -4.30%
3/1/2018   250.210007   254.720001   234.850006   241.399994   235.688904   121375800   -3.52%
4/1/2018   240.330002   248.479996   233.199997   241.539993   236.256378   107013400   0.06%
5/1/2018   240.690002   250.669998   235.119995   244.179993   238.966553   82708700   1.09%
6/1/2018   246.139999   254.160004   239.830002   242.729996   238.217728   99747700   -0.59%
7/1/2018   240.919998   255.679993   240.619995   254.169998   249.817841   75848400   4.71%
8/1/2018   253.899994   261.769989   249.860001   259.850006   255.724808   79662700   2.23%
9/1/2018   259.220001   267.609985   257.820007   264.399994   260.750702   63102800   1.75%
10/1/2018   266.100006   269.279999   241.050003   251.190002   248.230576   163946700   -5.00%
11/1/2018   252.149994   262.970001   242.710007   255.509995   252.654037   93217400   1.72%
12/1/2018   260.170013   260.299988   216.970001   233.199997   231.142029   136737400   -8.73%
1/1/2019   229.270004   251   226.360001   250.119995   248.581711   93233700   7.26%
2/1/2019   250.669998   262.359985   249.130005   259.279999   257.869446   60166600   3.66%
3/1/2019   261.149994   261.679993   252.460007   259.130005   258.427185   88451200   -0.06%
4/1/2019   261.230011   265.929993   260.579987   265.559998   265.401367   47338400   2.48%