Nah I wanted to see if you considered after-the-fact to be the same as before-the-fact, which you did. Even if we go by "approx" and "about" being at the top of your own estimation - your numbers show that if there are 11 million traders in the world one will indeed be so lucky by chance alone.
There aren't 11 million people trading bitcoins. And if there were, do you think it's really that likely that we happen to be talking to him/her?Of course there aren't. Neither are we talking to someone whose "approx" and "about" really means 36/40
But you should expect that the most vocal about how good traders they are indeed are the ones on the far (profitable) end of the distribution - the ones who lose money don't usually go around claiming that they can beat the market.This makes the 'chance' analogy an invalid one.
Are you prepared to put your claims to the test or not? After-the-fact all traders beat the market. Before-the-fact no one wants to step up to the challenge.