Quote from: exstasie on September 06, 2019, 07:18:51 PM

Quote from: RodeoX on September 06, 2019, 06:47:32 PM

PRO-TIP: all bitcoin TA and speculation is just guessing. Nothing more to it than that. Wink

It is literally impossible to account for enough of the economic activity in crypto to generate any meaningful numbers. There is still nothing wrong with it. Guessing is fun.

There are guesses and there are educated guesses. Good TA practitioners fall in the second category. They acknowledge that markets are unpredictable, for exactly the reason you mention: markets are composed of millions of variables and no one can account for them all. But I strongly believe (as someone who has traded successfully for almost a decade) that rigorous application of back-tested TA methods can achieve success > 50% of the time. Over the long run, that will equate to a sustainable win rate for traders who employ proper risk management.

The mentioned back-tested strategies are based on the strategies which generated after analyzing the price patterns. If the market repeats the cycles and bull-bear zones are crossed several times in a year, having a long term trading strategy is not enough in this case. The market bias happens at the every opportunity caused by the weakness of the bulls or bears. If there is no bias exploring market strategy, choosing the timeframe for short/long term trading will not help the trader. Just my 2 cents.