Quote from: bayes on February 20, 2014, 04:47:41 PM

Let's say I'm an actor with a non-obvious insight into the future effects of Fed policy.

How does Truthcoin incentivize me to add my insight to the market? My status as someone with non-obvious insight into the future effects of Fed policy means my opportunity cost is rather high.

Hey I want to answer this question but I really don't understand your second sentence.

You might read another paper I placed into the docs folder, https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/tree/master/docs , called Combinatorial Binary Prediction Markets.pdf, and if you look at Example 3 you can see how you can use these PMs to bet on the effect FED policy will have on something. If you make it to all the way to Example 6 you might see exactly how you can reshape the entire distribution of, for example, inflation outcomes, based on, for example, a FED policy decision. If your forecast is an improvement over the existing forecast, (and depending on how lucky you are), you can expect to profit.

If you have extra-special insight, you could actually create this market yourself, set the probability to what you think it is and bait other people into voting against you. On InTrade and predictious, you cannot create a new prediction market (although you can request one), and in fact I believe they are very slow and un-entrepeneurial in providing what people want.