Quote from: Flying Hellfish on January 13, 2020, 05:35:54 PM

Booker is out and Bernie is surging (at exactly the right time). Warren lost too much support when she flipped flopped on M4A.

The leader of the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll has gone on to win the nomination for the last 6 cycles, Bernie for the first time in his 2 attempts at the nom has reached 1st place in that poll. If the last 6 cycles are any indication Bernie will win the nomination!!!!

The MSM, Biden campaign and the Trump campaign have finally started to realize that Bernie has a shot at the nomination, and all 3 are spending time going after him now!

Bernie is by no means a sure shot at this point, IA AND NH are absolute must wins for Bernie BUT if he can manage to win them both it could be the momentum he needs for Super Tuesday! Bernie leads the polls in CA as well. Bernie is very popular with latino's as well and NV should be another momentum builder. SC could end up in play for Bernie if he can win IA, NH and NV. If anyone other than Sanders wins IA and NH, Biden will win the nomination and Trump will win the general!

Bernie needs to bring out the "traditional" non voters as the boomers who vote in huge percentages still don't like him. Bernies strength has always been in bringing in "new" voters and over performing the shitty primary polls!

Buttigieg is a non starter at this point, he spent his load in IA and is trending down in the IA poll. The best he can hope for at this point is for Biden to win the nom and then the general so he can get a high profile cabinet position. In a few cycles when the neolibs are dead and withering in the streets Buttigieg can flip back to being progressive and run again (this time he would have executive branch experience). Everyone will forget how much of a neolib twat he was in this cycle.

Warren shit the bed when she flip flopped on M4A, she came off as another corporate politician trying to walk a line rather than an authentic person who believed her ideals. There was 12434636 candidates against M4A and 2 for it, once she wasn't one of the 2 supporting it she lost to much support to the only other candidate that does support it.

40% of the US wants to vote for a "burn the whole fucking thing down" candidate, this is a big part of the reason Trump drew the inside straight flush draw to win in 16. Bernie has been trying to BTWFTD since Vietnam and his message is inspiring to the people Bernie needs to win. Bernie has been on the right side of history (anti war, civil rights, globalization etc etc) for 40 years and voters can see his authenticity and they like it and his 4 decade messages.

The GOP base is SOOOOO energized right now (hyper partisan politics at it's best), the only real chance the Dems have to beat Trump in 2020 is to bring out the largest voting block in the US (non voters...). Biden (HRC 2.0) will get stomped in the general, he doesn't inspire ANYONE and he (along with Trumps campaign HAMMERING him) will suppress the dem vote worse than Hillary did! Bernie will win most if not all of the only ~8 states that actually matter

It's time for Bernie to go hard after Biden and Warren tomorrow night. If done right Bernie can really keep the pressure on going in to IA.

In my opinion we should know (with about 90% accuracy) after NH if the nominee will be Biden or Bernie.

Hey Squatz what happened to it being a 2 horse race between Biden and Warren, what happened to "Bernie will never win the nom"....??

Well I guess I still have time to not be wrong. But at this point I'm going to be admitting that I was wrong here. At this current point, Bernie does seem to be the frontrunner in all the states that he needs to come through in order to turn momentum the way that he needs. Obviously, none of this has happened yet and he still needs things to happen - but at this current point, I'll admit that I was wrong (for now, hehe)

I just don't think that traditional democrats are ready for him, I don't think the party establishment is ready for him -- though I suppose that the same thing could've (and was) said of Donald Trump. When you sit down and think about it, their campaigns are actually similar in a way - they both are going for hostile takeovers of their respective parties (Trump more then Sanders on this one, but still) and they've both burned a ton of bridges within their party that would lead to many people in the House and Senate stepping down if they were to win (Many moderate republicans left office when Trump was elected, I expect the same for the Dems if Sanders is to win the presidency)

We'll see, we only have a week or so until Iowa. Lot can happen in a week.