Quote from: Chris_Sabian on February 27, 2014, 04:06:39 PM

Quote from: gog1 on February 27, 2014, 03:58:10 PM

Quote from: Xu on February 27, 2014, 03:51:23 PM

4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?

It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.

How did you get 3.4%? My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day.

Not intend to challenge you, just want to share your methodology.

Care you show your math?

If we find 3 blocks in 7 days, that's avg of 3/7 blocks per day and if assume Poisson process, we have the following:
blocks found / probability
0 / 0.6514
1 / 0.2792
2 / 0.0598
3 / 0.0085
4 / 0.0001+

Going back all the way to mid Dec, I cannot find any 24 hour period where we have >3 blocks.