Quote from: Spendulus on July 17, 2020, 09:04:12 PM

Quote from: af_newbie on July 17, 2020, 05:24:57 PM

...

Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.

You seriously believe that number?

If nothing is done, by November we will get

July 17, 2020    3,763,977.00       0.04
July 18, 2020    3,914,536.08       0.04
July 19, 2020    4,071,117.52       0.04
July 20, 2020    4,233,962.22       0.04
July 21, 2020    4,403,320.71       0.04
July 22, 2020    4,579,453.54       0.04
July 23, 2020    4,762,631.68       0.04
July 24, 2020    4,953,136.95       0.04
July 25, 2020    5,151,262.43       0.04
July 26, 2020    5,357,312.93       0.04
July 27, 2020    5,571,605.44       0.04
July 28, 2020    5,794,469.66       0.04
July 29, 2020    6,026,248.45       0.04
July 30, 2020    6,267,298.38       0.04
July 31, 2020    6,517,990.32       0.04
August 1, 2020    6,778,709.93       0.04
August 2, 2020    7,049,858.33       0.04
August 3, 2020    7,331,852.66       0.04
August 4, 2020    7,625,126.77       0.04
August 5, 2020    7,930,131.84       0.04
August 6, 2020    8,247,337.11       0.04
August 7, 2020    8,577,230.60       0.04
August 8, 2020    8,920,319.82       0.04
August 9, 2020    9,277,132.62       0.04
August 10, 2020    9,648,217.92       0.04
August 11, 2020    10,034,146.64       0.04
August 12, 2020    10,435,512.50       0.04
August 13, 2020    10,852,933.00       0.04
August 14, 2020    11,287,050.32       0.04
August 15, 2020    11,738,532.34       0.04
August 16, 2020    12,208,073.63       0.04
August 17, 2020    12,696,396.57       0.04
August 18, 2020    13,204,252.44       0.04
August 19, 2020    13,732,422.54       0.04
August 20, 2020    14,281,719.44       0.04
August 21, 2020    14,852,988.21       0.04
August 22, 2020    15,447,107.74       0.04
August 23, 2020    16,064,992.05       0.04
August 24, 2020    16,707,591.73       0.04
August 25, 2020    17,375,895.40       0.04
August 26, 2020    18,070,931.22       0.04
August 27, 2020    18,793,768.47       0.04
August 28, 2020    19,545,519.21       0.04
August 29, 2020    20,327,339.98       0.04
August 30, 2020    21,140,433.57       0.04
August 31, 2020    21,986,050.92       0.04
September 1, 2020    22,865,492.95       0.04
September 2, 2020    23,780,112.67       0.04
September 3, 2020    24,731,317.18       0.04
September 4, 2020    25,720,569.87       0.04
September 5, 2020    26,749,392.66       0.04
September 6, 2020    27,819,368.37       0.04
September 7, 2020    28,932,143.10       0.04
September 8, 2020    30,089,428.83       0.04
September 9, 2020    31,293,005.98       0.04
September 10, 2020    32,544,726.22       0.04
September 11, 2020    33,846,515.27       0.04
September 12, 2020    35,200,375.88       0.04
September 13, 2020    36,608,390.91       0.04
September 14, 2020    38,072,726.55       0.04
September 15, 2020    39,595,635.61       0.04
September 16, 2020    41,179,461.04       0.04
September 17, 2020    42,826,639.48       0.04
September 18, 2020    44,539,705.06       0.04
September 19, 2020    46,321,293.26       0.04
September 20, 2020    48,174,144.99       0.04
September 21, 2020    50,101,110.79       0.04
September 22, 2020    52,105,155.22       0.04
September 23, 2020    54,189,361.43       0.04
September 24, 2020    56,356,935.89       0.04
September 25, 2020    58,611,213.32       0.04
September 26, 2020    60,955,661.86       0.04
September 27, 2020    63,393,888.33       0.04
September 28, 2020    65,929,643.86       0.04
September 29, 2020    68,566,829.62       0.04
September 30, 2020    71,309,502.80       0.04
October 1, 2020    74,161,882.91       0.04
October 2, 2020    77,128,358.23       0.04
October 3, 2020    80,213,492.56       0.04
October 4, 2020    83,422,032.26       0.04
October 5, 2020    86,758,913.55       0.04
October 6, 2020    90,229,270.10       0.04
October 7, 2020    93,838,440.90       0.04
October 8, 2020    97,591,978.54       0.04
October 9, 2020    101,495,657.68       0.04
October 10, 2020    105,555,483.98       0.04
October 11, 2020    109,777,703.34       0.04
October 12, 2020    114,168,811.48       0.04
October 13, 2020    118,735,563.94       0.04
October 14, 2020    123,484,986.49       0.04
October 15, 2020    128,424,385.95       0.04
October 16, 2020    133,561,361.39       0.04
October 17, 2020    138,903,815.85       0.04
October 18, 2020    144,459,968.48       0.04
October 19, 2020    150,238,367.22       0.04
October 20, 2020    156,247,901.91       0.04
October 21, 2020    162,497,817.99       0.04
October 22, 2020    168,997,730.71       0.04
October 23, 2020    175,757,639.93       0.04
October 24, 2020    182,787,945.53       0.04
October 25, 2020    190,099,463.35       0.04
October 26, 2020    197,703,441.89       0.04
October 27, 2020    205,611,579.56       0.04
October 28, 2020    213,836,042.74       0.04
October 29, 2020    222,389,484.45       0.04
October 30, 2020    231,285,063.83       0.04
October 31, 2020    240,536,466.38       0.04
November 1, 2020    250,157,925.04       0.04
November 2, 2020    260,164,242.04       0.04
November 3, 2020    270,570,811.72       0.04
November 4, 2020    281,393,644.19       0.04
November 5, 2020    292,649,389.96       0.04
November 6, 2020    304,355,365.56       0.04
November 7, 2020    316,529,580.18       0.04
November 8, 2020    329,190,763.39       0.04

and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions).

The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would be already permanently damaged by first infections.

I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections. As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.

People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.