,,,,
BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country. Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07
I think it is just better to use
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.
Okay, let's use that one.
It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons.
It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected. Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease.
Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%.
Are you still believing 50-100M?
These things overshoot, 10M dead will have repercussions that will lead to partial degradation of basic services. Not to mention possibility of secondary infections on the remaining 320M 'innoculated' population. Hence, my 50M+ dead count by the Nov 2021.
People don't realize how vulnerable our societies are. It is the domino effect that will bring us to 50M+, The Walking Dead scenario.
I must admit that it is probably unlikely even for hard core, no-mask 'freedom fighters' from your local trailer park, even they will succum to the realization that something needs to be done to stop the spread when their loved ones start dying.
But, like I said, if nothing is done, that is where we are headed.