Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 01:11:12 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:48 AM

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

Fair enough.

Quote from: Gyfts on Today at 05:49:57 AM

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?

I never checked the betting lines while the results were pouring in but the UK markets late night on November 3rd went from 37% Trump odds to a 75% Trump odds which I probably could have made a bet on. At no point in the night did the data support a 3/4 chance of a Trump win so it would have been a good bet anyone to take. Perhaps some emotional betting, perhaps some overzealous Trump supporters, who knows why the odds were that high.

As far as 2024 bets. I don't think Trump or his children will be successful at clinching the nomination. Ted Cruz and Nikki Hayley will both be running in 2024 and I feel strongly about one of them winning. But like I said, I would never put my money where my mouth is because politics is way too unpredictable. In 2016, I would have bet my kidney that Trump would not have gotten the nomination, and we see how that turned out. I would have bet my other kidney that he wouldn't win the general. And we see how that turned out. Also one of these two (Cruz or Hayley) could get hit by a bus in the next 4 years and I'd be out of my sat. Unless, of course, there was a clause in the bet about getting ran over by a bus Roll Eyes

I also am not even sure if it's a good idea for any gambler to bet that Biden would even run in 2024. I think Kamala Harris probably would take over by then, and in that case I think odds favor Republicans to beat Kamala Harris instead of Biden with how unlikeable she is.

I wonder if Pence runs? Hmm. A Pence vs Harris Presidential race? Woah.