Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 25, 2020, 07:58:50 PM

Nearly all the following I referenced in my previous post (almost more relevant now than yesterday), but I'll analysis exactly what's happening now my stop has been triggered...

Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 25, 2020, 07:58:50 PM

Stop loss now moved up to just under $18K. I'm very much still under the impression that if price breaks below the MA ribbon on the 4hr, price will fall considerably lower.

Big moves. Price finally broken down from $19.5K, somewhat as anticipated in yesterdays post. One target from the ascending wedge break-down is around $16.8K, while price has so far reached the low $17.1K:

Based on the 4hr MA Ribbon, the parabolic structure has been broken. While there is support below, it forces me call the local top $19.5K for now:

The 4hr RSI also confirms this trend break, with the price strength now closing in <40 bearish territory for the first time since early October:

As previous warned, price has been overbought on the Daily time-frame for around a month. The good news is, laddering into the dip is now looking possible:

As also referenced, the Weekly RSI was at critical 85 overbought, exactly where price corrected from in late 2016, prior to breaking ATH:

The TD 9 Sell Signal is now starting to look like a sell signal, with currently the first red candle after many weeks of upside:

While I'm satisfied with my $18K exit, I wouldn't be surprised to see price re-test $18.6K before moving lower towards a minimum of $16K (-18% from local top). This is where the volume point of control lies, as well as around the 21 & 500 MAs on the 4hr chart, that are now starting to slope downwards in bearish fashion.

TL:DR: I'm not expecting this to be the dip bought up like previous times, but instead a dead cat bounce back to resisitance before lower levels.