Quote from: exstasie on Today at 07:29:32 PM

Quote from: adaseb on Today at 05:46:50 AM

Quote from: exstasie on December 17, 2020, 10:33:54 PM

What % of your stash are you planning to sell?

It might be a brilliant place to sell if we're looking at a 2013 scenario, where we had a mini bubble in April followed by the big blowout in November. The April run topped ~7x above the 2011 ATH, then the market crashed 83%. You'd make a killing on that.

I'm a little worried we're looking at something different though. If it's more like 2017, we could go straight to $300K before the bubble pops. Selling everything at $100K would be extremely painful in that case.

Just something to consider. Tongue

I don't think you should set a price to sell for like $50K or $100K or $500K, you should sell based on what the price is doing.

If you look at the previous bull and bear cycles, there is usually a sharp rejection (2011,2013,2017) and there is a bounce to at least 50% from the top and if you sell then, usually its the highest low before starting the bear cycle.

You can even use fibs. Either 50% or 61.8% fibs would work. So you can either guess and sell everything today at $23K or wait for it to hit like $50K, lose half its value going to $25K, and then wait for the 50% bounce and sell everything at $37.5K. Its not $50K but easier than guessing and selling everything at $23K.

So whatever the ATH is, sell 50% from that ATH on the bounce.

Yeah, that was my old mentor's system: wait until the bubble pops and then sell the bounce. It's the only way to hedge against the exponential upside, which can't be predicted beforehand.

That's what I did in 2013 and 2017. You won't hear me claiming I sold the top of every bubble like some people around here! Roll Eyes

That's a pretty good strategy. Like after the 2017 peak, at least on Coinbase, I dunno about other exchanges, it dropped all the way to $10,000s, then came back to $16k or $17k a couple times afterwards in the ensuing bounces. Problem still remains you don't know how much it's going to bounce, but yeah it protects from selling wayyyy too early in a bull market. If I still have some coin left after the crash begins I would likely try to do this and hit a bounce.

Of course there is still the problem of maybe you mistake a bull market correction and turnaround for the start of the bear market and initial bounce. My brother in 2017 bought at $2500 or something and on the very first correction, after ~$4800 was hit, he sold at like $3500 (not helped by an in-law in the financial industry who told him to get out now and that Bitcoin is going to zero haha). But he thought that was the big crash and I tried to tell him that was a huge mistake on his part but he had already sold. I certainly can't say if I see Bitcoin dropping 30-40% that I'll know whether or not it's the start of the bear market or just a correction in the ongoing bull market.

In general though I'll be watching what the price is doing, as adaseb said. I expect a blow-off top to end the bull market would be the result of a very significant rise over the course of a month or two, that outstrips the previous big rises. Like if price hits $50k, then corrects to $30k, then builds back to $50k, then a month or two later has over doubled to $120k, I'd think it's peaking at that point and we're about to see a blow-off top. Whereas if price hits $80k, corrects to $30k, builds back to $80k and then a month or two later shoots up to $120k, I wouldn't think that's a perilous enough climb to represent a blow-off top so I would think it's going higher still, but if shortly after that it shot up to like $150k I'd think that $80k to $150k rise at those price levels would likely represent an incoming peak and blow-off top.