Quote from: Ektra on Today at 05:31:49 PM

Quote from: exstasie on Today at 09:04:58 AM

Quote from: coinbiz on January 07, 2021, 08:46:32 PM

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days. Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident. What goes up must come down.

Sure, but from where?

Bitcoin just crossed the 2017 ATH, and is only 2x above it. For it to crash into a bear market now would be totally unprecedented. We could go an order of magnitude higher first.

So yeah, an 80% drop from $300K? Definitely possible! But that gets you $60K, not $15K. Wink

Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table.

The late '13 pump 'only' reached 4x the previous ATH of $260. And then it famously crashed well below it. Scaling up to take account of the bigger, slower, deeper market we have now it seems to me totally plausible that the bubble could burst before 100k. Really the whole shape of the market since 2016 is strikingly similar to a macro version of 2012-13, with '17 being similar to the April 13 peak and this one shaping up to be like a slow motion nov '13. Conditions and sentiment are quite different now to 2017, the newbies are more optimistic than the old lot and you can tell this just by looking at the way the market has ratcheted up since early 2019. Very different to the uncertainty and doom of 14/15 and even '16. Just like late 2013 vs the people who felt the pain of the 2011 crash, people feel invincible.

Put another way, if 2017 was a big elliot wave III, this is the V, just like april 13 was the iii and november was the v.

Never say never but I think it may be unwise to get married to the idea of a 2017 rerun. We're already just as vertical as the steepest parts of 2017.

Depends on if you view 2013 at two separate bull runs, or a double peak in a single bull run. Granted there was a full 80% crash immediately after the first 2013 peak, though I believe it very quickly in a matter of days after that went to double the bottom price (~$45 to ~$105) so more like a 60% crash really. And then just 6 months later it had another peak 5x higher than the first peak.

Now I do agree we could get a double peak this year similar to '13. I think institutions are pushing this thing up too fast and they will start to get scared of stacking more sats if it goes up another 50% or so quickly. We could see a peak in the next month or two perhaps in the $60k - $80k range. But I don't think there is any way we get an 80% crash or have it take 6 months after that for it to start pushing new ATHs again like in 2013. Institutional investors would come back in at lower prices and stop the crash in its tracks.

It could be something like we go over $60k in Feb, then a couple weeks to crash down to $30k, it then stabilizes between $30k and $40k with institutions eating up all that cheap bitcoin from people who are still stupidly selling. Or maybe $50k is major resistance and it ranges between $40k and $50k for a month or so like at $20k. Then by April/May it's pushing back over $50k and heading towards and over $100k by late summer / early Fall. Maybe this then repeats and we see it crash back down under $100k over the Fall/Winter, and then by mid 2022 it's pushing past $200k.

For sure it is going up too fast, but that is because long term institutional buyers are getting in for the first time, and they have so much more money than was already in the market, even just throwing a very tiny amount of their money into Bitcoin is enormous compared to all the money that was previously in Bitcoin. So while the price is going up too fast, the floor is also rising dramatically. It won't be too long before the floor is where the price currently is, in which institutions would jump at the chance to buy Bitcoin at $40k on a correction.