Quote from: exstasie on Today at 10:05:50 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on Today at 07:53:45 AM

Fair enough. I did say nothing is impossible, but yeah, if we "crash" down to $5000, it should be momentary and it will have to take something or many things converging -- not necessarily something very wrong with the underlying asset, could still be a lot of external factors. Take 2020's negative prices for oil, for example. A temporary glut in supply and inability to transport it, or even use it up with industries shutting down. Hard to see that happening to Bitcoin, but I still won't rule anything crazy happening, something of a given with crypto.

Only the May oil futures contracts went negative, and that's due to the nature of physical delivery of a commodity like oil, which is quite expensive to store (especially when there is a global oil glut). Basically, the contract was very illiquid heading into settlement, and long traders had no way to take physical delivery of the oil. So they were forced to dump, or were liquidated in the resulting crash.

Hard to see that happening with Bitcoin!

I just don't see any fundamental justification for $5K prices outside of an existential threat or failure. It would be a complete divergence from what Bitcoin has done its entire life. Consider this: m/2021/01/08/bill-miller-says-bitcoin-becomes-less-risky-the-higher-the-price-goes-.html]Bill Miller says bitcoin becomes less risky the higher the price goes

I agree with him. In my view, technicals tell everything about a market, and that sort of price action (crashing 88% to $5K at this point in a bull market) would indicate the market has largely lost faith in Bitcoin, to a degree not seen since 2011. That's totally at odds with the idea that Bitcoin becomes less risky as the price rises. We've got to consider how much supply has been sucked off the market in 2020, and what it would take to immediately bring it all back. It would have to be something truly threatening to Bitcoin's long term value proposition.

How do you reconcile that with the drop to 1/4 of the price in the first four months of 2018? Was there a similar existential threat to BTC then too?