Quote from: hosseinimr93 on May 05, 2021, 04:02:10 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on May 05, 2021, 12:27:59 PM

You've explained it well, I only disagree with your last sentence. I think the chance of winning is absolutely the same either with martingale or betting with 1.1x multiplier. With this particular multiplier you have 10%+ chances of losing your whole balance right away, with the very first bet, even on a site with the smallest house edge.

You are right. I calculated the chance of winning in both cases.
Let's say I have 1 BTC and I want to convert it to 1.1 BTC.

If I put the whole 1 BTC is a single bet with multiplier of 1.1, my chance of winning would be 86.36%.

If I use martingale method and set the base bet to 0.001 mBTC, the chance of converting the 1 BTC to 1.1 BTC would be:

(1 - 0.525¹⁰)¹⁰⁰ = 0.852 = 85.3%

Wow. I didn't know about this. Thanks for your explanation!

Although it's hard to really "feel" the 1% difference when talking about the probability of something happening, I have to admit that I was absolutely wrong, because I thought the bias would be in favor of martingale.

Can you please help me to fully understand your formula,

(1 - 0.525¹⁰)¹⁰⁰ = 0.852 = 85.3%

which I'm sure is accurate bc your post was merited by reputable members of this forum. I see that 0.525 is there because on freebitco.in we have 52.50% chance of losing a bet with 2x multiplier. To the power of 100 is there bc we need to win 100 bets to convert 1 BTC to 1.1 BTC with the base bet of 0.001 BTC ... wait, you said "the base bet to 0.001 mBTC". Was it a typo, 0.001 mBTC? Because I thought, to the power of 10 here, 0.525¹⁰, was there bc you need to lose 10 times in a row with 0.001 BTC base bet to lose 1 BTC with martingale. ... now I'm lost completely!

Please don't think I'm trolling here. I'm not. I really want to get full understanding of this formula, which is not as simple as it looks(for me, at least). I use to think that I was having a good understanding of probabilities, but it appeared it was only a superficial idea about it.