Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

i expect my post to be deleted. but before clicking the button treat this as some positive criticism

Fair enough.. .. I will concede that I am still trying to figure out the level that might fall into deletion territory, but this does not seem very close to merely because it is making various criticisms of some of my points as they currently stand in the OP posts. My current intention is to largely have the first 5 posts as ongoing edited outlines and to mostly allow subsequent posts in the thread to stand as is without editing (or deleting for that matter unless they go too far in terms of their shilling or trolling).

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

you seem to fear the bears and dips.. why?
bears and dips are not a time to get scared and drop your % accumulation. not a time to sell. its actually the perfect time to buy in more at a discount.

As I already mentioned, I am not sure where you are getting the idea about my supposed fear. Of course, I have a personal preference for the BTC price to go up, just like anyone should likely prefer if they are sufficiently (or heavily) invested, so in that regard, there are more profits from going up as compared with going down.. but at the same time, anyone who has been in bitcoin for long enough should realize that BTC prices do not just go straight up and one of the BIGGEST guarantees would be up and down price movements (aka volatility), and in the short term, it is not always clear about what direction it is going to be, and surely those who invest in bitcoin for long enough (which is the case with me) have developed a premise that there is an expectation that the BTC price will be UP in the longer term, and for me, that expectation of the BTC price being up is at least on a 4 year timeline.. and even that is not guaranteed, but I think that the odds will be that the BTC price will be UP on a 4-year timeline from any time that anyone invested; however, on a shorter timeline, the price may or may not be up.. so in that respect, it can be quite a bit more difficult to have expectations in regards to short term price movements - and surely there may be larger deviations from price expectations, such as corrections into the 80% plus arena during a bear market or even corrections greater than 30% in a bull market tht cause frustration regarding where the price is at in contrast to where the price might have been expected to be.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

dont fear the bear/dips. enjoy and get excited by them. its discount.

edit to explain references to fear/bears

I see no reason for anyone who is investing in BTC to get excited about corrections. Sure, taking advantage of such corrections when they occur and buying more BTC during corrections does seem to be an overall sound strategy that I have been following since I got into BTC in late 2013. My first 3 years in bitcoin was largely down from the price in which I had made my initial BTC purchase at around $1,200... so surely, I am familiar with down and I am familiar with buying on the way down and continuing to buy at lower prices than my initial BTC purchase in late 2013. Actually, that first BTC that I purchased in late November 2013 did not become consistently profitable until about April 2017, which would have been about 3 years and 5 months after that initial purchase.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:10:25 AM

and if things kind of evolved in a negative way or I became bearish on bitcoin, I would shoot for staying invested in bitcoin for at least 1 year out of consideration of long-term rather than short-term capital gains tax ramifications.

sounds like when markets go bear, you NOW halt purchasing and force yourself to not listen to the voice telling you to sell and pay taxes, and instead just hoard and wait out the bear

You seem to be projecting here. For me personally, since the beginning, my system of getting involved in BTC was intended as a long term investment, so I have very little inclination to fuck around with getting in and out of bitcoin, so in that regard, I am mostly in all of the time and mostly accumulating.

Perhaps my strategy will come out more after I flesh out some of the points in my 5 OP posts.. but the gist of the matter was that my first year in Bitcoin I was still in the process of figuring out the level of allocation that I was going to end up making into bitcoin, and I largely figured that out by the end of the first year and considered 10% to be a good target allocation level (which I reached by the end of 2014); however, any of us can look at the BTC price charts and see that the vast majority of 2015 had the BTC price largely bouncing in the mid $200s, and so during that time I continued to accumulate BTC, so towards the end of 2015, my accumulation level was around 13.5%, so in that respect I started to feel overallocated, and therefore, my relatively small and incremental sales strategies that I started to employ towards the end of 2015 and continued to carry out subsequently (and even to date) were somewhat responses to considering my overall portfolio to be overallocated, so there was not any kind of real motivation to worry about if I had enough BTC.. so I could freely sell incremental amounts of BTC in pretty liberating ways and without too much worry about if I had enough, so I started to consider some other factors but the factor about having enough BTC started to play a much smaller role in my considerations.

As we know the BTC price pretty much went up from late 2015, so in late 2015 and even into 2016, some of my earlier plans to sell BTC as the price went up were more aggressive than they ended up playing out.. Since I did not really end up selling as aggressively as I had originally intended starting in around 2016, my BTC allocation started to go up mostly due to BTC price appreciation rather than my continuing to throw new money into it.

So largely my BTC allocation went from 13.5% in late 2015 to around 85% in late 2017, and corrected back down to 45% in the deeper of the BTC price corrections in late 2018 and even the March 2020 liquidation event... and in recent times, my BTC allocation has hovered between 87% and 91% depending on the BTC price levels (such as down to $28,600 and up to $69k) and maybe some other shaving around actions that I might take from time to time.. but the allocation remains pretty high in BTC and seems to give a lot of liberty and options in terms of shaving off profits whenever I want or if I want... and another thing that I like to assert on a regular basis is that even though I went back and forth regarding some of my BTC holdings in earlier years and sometimes mistakes were made in terms of my average cost per BTC.. but even if we consider my average costs per BTC to be around $1k per BTC (which is a nice round number for calculation purposes, there should not be a lot of worries whether some BTC needs to be shaven off at 20x, 40x or 70x.. Of course, it is better if the shaving off is at higher profits, but once a portfolio is considerably in profits, there are no real BIG motivations to quibble in regards to what to do, and it is not any kind of BIG deal if profits might be taken at smaller levels of profits - even while at the same time, there still might be some preferences to curb behaviors in order to get some of the greater benefits to cash out some amounts at 70x rather than 20x profits... when it seems feasible and practical to be able to accomplish that without any kind of meaningful burden.. so in that regard there are options but there can still be decisions in terms of trying to better manage the portfolio.. even while perceiving oneself to have quite a few options..

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

yet you have the premiss still to just 'wait it out' rather then buy buy buy

good advice is buy low sell high. buy the fall sell the rise
not buy the rise fear the fall.

Even though there could be some sense in what you are saying here.. you seem to be talking quite a bit of nonsense too.. so hopefully some of my points will be made more clear in terms of various strategies in terms of whether a guy/gal/institution is in accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage, so the strategies may well differ depending on what stage you are in, and surely I am not advocating for any kind of selling while in the earlier stages of accumulation, yet we know that any person/entity is going to have more options after they have reached some kind of decent and meaningful stake in BTC.. and for sure I am not advocating getting in and out of BTC like some kind of a gambling fool, which seems to be the way you are inclined to describe ways to consider BTC portfolio management and/or preferred courses of action.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:10:25 AM

Frequently also there can be fears that there is too much volatility in bitcoin or I am scared that bitcoin might go down in price, and a variety of concerns about the government cracking down or their being a software bug or that banks and rich people are able to drive/manipulate BTC prices down, or we might have another corona virus liquidation event scare or Armageddon etc, and these scenarios could well justify some folks to cut down the amount that is invested into bitcoin.. so instead of investing 10% you invest 5% or instead of investing 5% you only invest 1%.. Sometimes people will allow smaller probability expectations to justify that they do not do anything and they do not invest, but such scenarios most likely ONLY really justify a reduction of risk rather than not investing at all in BTC.

you keep mentioning bitcoin price downs as a negative. dude its discount. its a positive

Here's the part where maybe you are starting to get annoying.

Cheesy

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

here you are saying in times of bear you advise people decrease their DCA amounts from 10% to 5% to 1%
when bears happen. you even call it 'reducing risk'

You seem to be misunderstanding me.

I am saying that if a person is feeling timid about investing in BTC, then they should engage in some considerations to reduce the amount that they decide to invest into BTC rather than NOT investing in BTC at all. Frequently, people consider investing in something like BTC as a kind of all or nothing proposition, so I am trying to make a point about some of the ways that individuals or even institutions can attempt to tailor their allocation in accordance with their level of fear or their level of bullishness in regards to their view about BTC as an investment. I doubt there should be needs to make very many adjustments in regards to if we happen to be in a bear market or a bull market, even though I do understand and appreciate that a lot of people are affected by what kind of market they feel that we are in, so what kind of market we are in does have to come into play from time to time, but the overall attempts to plan ahead should end up being helpful for anyone to frame their investment approach in broader ways in order that they are not having to make any kinds of major changes that are based on market changes. Hopefully some of these matters will become more clear after I flesh out a few of the OPs that will go into more discussions regarding portfolio management considerations.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

EG if the price tipped $20k in 2017. and you had 1%DCA, and then it corrected down. you should have increased to 5% when it dipped to $10k and increased to 10% when it dipped to $5k. meaning your buying 10% of your wealth at only $5k and only 1% of wealth at $20k
put it this way if you are happy to put in say $1k (rep 1% of wealth) a month at $20k spike. you are getting just 0.05btc a month, however if you put in $10k(rep 10% wealth) at $5k you get 2btc
meaning you gain more coin per dollar, which is a good thing

It's a bit unclear to me about what kind of hypothetical that you would like to use here.

I could give less than two ratt's asses about trying to time the market, yet I understand that it can make a difference if someone had been in bitcoin for a while and reached his/her accumulation goals and maybe even gone beyond his/her accumulation goals prior to the 2017 run up.. but if someone was in early stages of BTC accumulation then there may hardly be any fruitfulness in trying to time the market.

Sure I understand that both during the 2017 price run up and surely for sure afterwards we see that there was a large price fall (85% fall in total), but still we are not knowing those kinds of matters with any kind of certainty while in the midst of them. Many folks had considered that the 2017 price run was going to top in the $3k to $5k arena, and some of those folks sold large quantities of their bitcoin hoping for the price to come back down, but the price ended up doing 4x to 6x more than expected.

I think that part of my point is going to be that any of us are going to have way more options after we have either been in BTC for a while or we have a decent amount of stake in BTC right preceding the run up... and surely I am not going to be trying to get into any kinds of playing around strategies that involve trying to time the market with any kind of precision beyond perhaps just attempting to play the BIGGER price swings after already achieving or surpassing BTC accumulation goals. I surely do not suggest or promote trading techniques as ways to accumulate more BTC, even though those techniques can work for some specialized folks, but the vast majority of normies should not be fucking around with that, so if you are trying to suggest that a lot of people should be engaging in the kinds of calculations that you are suggesting above, then we are surely viewing BTC investing from a differing perspective and you are likely to be hard-pressed to get me to agree to various techniques that I consider as gambling rather than investing.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

..then when the price increases, once you are above break even. then you reduce your risk by reducing your %, to avoid you getting less dollar per coin in times of temporary pump and dump drama changes

however your fear method of having $10k a month(10% dca) buying the $20k spike only gets you 0.5btc that extreme month. then when the correction happens you only want to buy $5k a month(5%) at $10k which is another 0.5. and the $1k(1%) at $5k which is only 0.2btc a month. and for many months you are only buying 0.2btc a month. instead of the opposite to fear which would net you 2btc a month while the $5k a coin option was discounted.

I doubt that I have completely laid out my strategy yet... so maybe some of these comparison and contrasting would be premature. I will concede, however, that my various techniques are not striving to maximize profits necessarily, and even a more mature investor might just be taking off some of the risk or shaving some profits along the way and largely just riding out the ups and downs. Of course, specific approaches are likely going to vary too.. so part of my initial concerns are going to be dealing with more basics that involve whether an investor into BTC is in early or late accumulation stages, and surely if high levels of accumulation has already occurred then there will be more options. Again, I am not advocating accumulation through selling, so you may be barking up the wrong tree if you want to be promoting that kind of an approach to BTC accumulation...

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

actual good investors buy more when there is a discount.. put more in per month at discounted prices. not less
basically you should accumulate more during dips.. not less

You seem to be repeating your mischaracterization of what I said....

maybe one aspect of my approach deserves repeating here. When I refer to BTC accumulation, I suggest that there are three main strategies which are 1) dollar cost averaging (DCA), 2) lump sum investing and 3) buying on dips. I consider the first two to be more powerful than the third; however, the third one can be meaningfully employed once the first two are figured out.. and for sure, I am not too BIG of a fan for giving too much priority to the third strategy even though you seem to want to emphasize such strategy - but at the same time, I consider the third strategy to be good once the other two strategies are in place, and surely another aspect is for investors into BTC to just to be clear about various other particulars of their circumstances, and if they have worked out their particulars such as cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, their timeline, their risk tolerance and their time, skills and abilities to plan, research, learn and tweak along the way which would include determining the extent to reallocate from time to time, or trade or the use of financial instruments including margin/leverage or other kinds of tools that might be available to them... and for sure, the latter skills of employing financial instruments is more sophisticated than simple trading and pure DCA is more simple than trading.. and so I surely am suggesting for the vast majority of normies to start out with the most basic/simple of strategies first before advancing to more complicated strategies, and don't get simple mixed up with not getting sufficiently richie. Bitcoin has been and likely continues to be such an asymmetric bet to the upside that there are really decent chances to get rich as fuck without even employing complicated methodologies, and furthermore, maybe the best way to avoid from NOT getting as richie as you could would be to make sure that you are not overly complicating matters when basic techniques continue to have great potential in bitcoin in terms of causing and increasing richie status for many normies who might not otherwise have those kinds of investments available to them.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 07:03:08 AM

..
as for your prediction models. i do hope you know that the stock-to-flow graph everyone is sharing regarding bitcoins price history is actually misleading. this is because the daily price of bitcoin has a pattern with S2F because bitcoins S2F has a yearly average price variable included to bend bitcoins S2F curve into resembling the separate market price chart.

so its not actually comparing just coins in circulation, deviated by production rate(true s2f) to then compare to market daily price. its actually just daily price compared to yearly moving averaged price at the point of the same day. where stock is added to make it not look exactly like 2 mirrored lines

everyone knows that bitcoins pure 'stock to flow" (circulation) is this step down curve

so when the year average price is added as a variable. ofcourse it will start bending the stock curve to resemble the price wiggle

its not predicting future prices. its using the historic price to resemble the historic price

Fair enough to assert that BTC's historical price performance does not guarantee future results, and maybe some of my further fleshing out of my ideas in the 5 above OPs would be helpful to clarifying my intended use of such models to attempt to show where we are at, how we got here and to thereby attempt to assign probabilities to where we might be going. Of course, the future is not predictable with any level of certainties and the best we can attempt is to assign accurate probabilities from our own point of view and then attempt our best to prepare for scenarios that we believe to be more likely in proportion to how we assign their likelihood, and of course, in that regard we should be attempting to prepare for a variety of scenarios, and surely we are not going to be completely prepared for every single scenario because sometimes minority scenarios end up playing out and we would not want to be caught completely unprepared for some scenarios merely because they have low likelihoods of happening.. but at the same time, for example, we should not be putting 50% preparations into scenarios that may well only have 1% or 2% odds of happening... and of course, new information or new happenings will end up causing likelihoods for various scenarios to change, so there remains benefits in being able to have flexibilities in terms of what is more likely at any given time but also to be able to make some adjustments when some of our preparations might not have been adequate in terms of scenarios that later are determined to be more likely than they had been previously.