Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Frankly, I don't get what he is saying... What means clarify "100k avg this cycle & regression analysis" ?
The only thing I can take away is:
Within 1sd range is sufficient, now. Which essentially means no need for a 100k average anymore.
I give him that: the model would still be useful in some ways.
But judging from my basic statistics skills, this s2f model can not be valid with an avg <100k.
Seems to me in order dodge that problem, he now allows a max error of 1sd.
I ask myself: why is he clinging to this model so intensely? Does he fear a loss of reputation?
I'd think moving goal posts constantly harms reputation far more than admitting a model's failure. And the 100k avg hasn't even been invalidated yet...
I conclude... he seems far more bearish than before. Which is a great basis for a 2022 face ripping BTC volcano explosion
Btw
Happy Christmas guys n gals
I think this is basically what he is doing:
In the past he said two things:
1. If it's not 100k by 12/21 then the model is broken.
2. If it does not have an average of 100k for this cycle top, then it's invalidated.
So #1 is done... well, it will be in 1 week.
But #2 is still possible, but becoming more fantastical by the day.
Of course I would LOVE to see #2 come true, and in that case the longer it takes to get there the funner it would be.
In my opinion, he is busted on his December prediction. I think he should own that bit, and concentrate on figuring out what is either wrong with the model, or his interpretation of it.
I agree.
#2 would be nice, but I doubt it as an average, even if we popped to 200k for a short time.
However, in order to save his ass in advance, he already threw #2 out of the window as a criteria for invalidation. Now, he is ok, as long as price stays within 1sd.
For me he has def. gone too far with his (childish) goalpost moving. I cannot take him serious anymore.
It's sad really. Because he came up with a glorious model. And even from the beginning of it all he said all models break.
All he needs to do is shrug is shoulders and say "Well damn, the model has broken earlier than I thought it would." And THEN get about the business of trying to explain why, or adjusting the model somehow to possibly be accurate into the future. Not move the goalposts, but openly try to improve the model... And the whole world would listen to him because he earned some serious credibility with S2F.
He could even do less than that, like say "Yeah my 100k by December" stand was a foolish and capricious move that actually ignores the way this model works (because it is and was)" And then point out that the model has still not been invalidated entirely.
Basically what he is doing now, but with humility rather than the whole "Well here is what I really always meant" line which 7 year olds can see.