I have been doing various things with coffee stirrers and crayons, and ~25k also looks like a good target for the drop from the giant head and shoulders considering it top portion.
So I think this theory has some pretty good possibility of happening. Unfortunately that would also paint us a lower low... which seems kind of bad. But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.
Of course I would still rather see a higher low and a third peak... But, who knows?
Maybe we all mix predictions with what we want? I still think that it is better to frame a prediction in terms of what you believe to be more likely to happen.. or even if any of us were to say that there is a 38% chance for x, a 30% chance for y and a 32% chance for z, then after we stated that, we might say, I prefer y.. at least we have framed the probabilities before stating the preference, and in that regard, there is a bit less mixing.. or at least you have stated both so we know what is your prediction and what is your preference, no?
But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.
I think we’ll see $25,000 too, it might not be until early 2023 though. We’ll bottom above $20,000 & then we’ll start the low climb up as we get close to the halving in 2024 & then transition into the next bull run. We’ll hit over $150,000 in 2025.
I could be totally wrong & we moon sooner which would be great. I think we’re in a bear market now though & we’ll have to wait through a crypto winter before we all get girlfriends in 2025.
That's too bad....,...
I supposed that this year tells us..... bear market like you said.. or an extension of the bull market....
There could be some variations of those theses.. but those two or the main two contending ones currently..
There are some scenarios that could play out more ambiguously that end up NOT making it clear regarding which of the above two theses had been the winner....
Personally, I have the sense that it is more likely that this will resolve itself.. and likely be known in 4-6 months at the latest...... and, even though I am more inclined to conjecture that an extension of the bull market is going to play out.. I am not going out an taking out debt to bet on that theory.... at least not currently...