Quote from: Marvell1 on March 17, 2022, 04:52:43 PM

Shocking bitcoin supply on centralized exchange, less and fewer bitcoins are stored and traded on CEX exchange.
The number of holders from 1-10 BTC has increased a lot (orange line) in the past 2 weeks.
The market has endured more than 4 months of decline, are we preparing for a new bullish season?

I remember in the last 6 months hearing news like that several times just before the price dropped.

Quote from: mk4 on March 17, 2022, 04:58:28 PM

Chain analysis can only help us get a good grasp at how supply moves; but it doesn't give us a clear picture of the potential demand — which is what actually mostly matters when talking about markets. Can't really have accurate expectations with supply alone.

Sure, that's the problem with taking a single statistic as the sole factor in determining price increase or decrease.

Quote from: Ratimov on March 17, 2022, 06:24:15 PM

A new bull season 5 months after reaching the last ATH? I understand that during a price increase, many begin to believe that this will always be the case, but let's be realistic. The market must someday enter a long crypto winter, there is no eternal growth. Yes, Glassnode is constantly reminding you that exchange wallet balances are declining, but we have one more metric to consider, which is the unrealized losses of investors who are under water for a long time.
...
Despite the fact that long-term investors are in no hurry to sell their coins, most of the coins of short-term investors are at a loss, which is $ 2,500,000. And as you know, it is short-term investors who have the most selling pressure, so I would not be so happy about the new bullrun, since not all weak hands sold their coins.

Good analysis. While we can never know for sure, I think you and I agree that it is quite unlikely that we will go over $69K this cycle. I remember after the January 2018 price drop that there was a lot of analysis justifying why the Bitcoin price was going to rise again and surpass $20K, which was true, but 4 years later. The current situation looks like the same thing. We will surpass $70K but around 2025 unless we have some very bullish events for Bitcoin before then, like some major country implementing El Salvador type legislation or the world's largest capitalization companies announcing they are buying Bitcoin for their reserves.