Quote from: paxmao on March 23, 2022, 09:46:17 PM

Quote from: DaRude on March 22, 2022, 11:43:12 PM

Quote from: paxmao on March 22, 2022, 09:19:11 PM

Quote from: be.open on March 22, 2022, 02:38:49 PM

blah blah fake info blah blah propaganda blah blah useless trash talk.
....

The success of the operation is largely due to Russia's dominance in the air and preventive strikes with high-precision weapons on military infrastructure.
...

blah blah fake info blah blah propaganda blah blah useless trash talk.

Success? Bruh, you must have experienced such a serious failures in your life that this looks like a win of some short. Precise munition? WTF, you are carpet-shelling cities... unless you mean precise within +/-10km or the like.

Russia is achieving some territorial "gains" (gains of a hostile territory, not something sustainable) at the cost of equipment that is costly and that, due to sanctions and isolation, probably not easy to replace. If anything is clear on this war is that Putin failed spectacularly in his assumptions (e.g. they won't resist, EU will not act united, ...)

On the rumour front, a large contingent of troops that were near Kyiv seems to actually been cut-out of supplies. Unconfirmed, but plausible.

I made a post on the economics of war mentioning:

A switchblade drone costs 6000 USD, it can be used by a nearly untrained grunt and can destroy a 5 million USD tank or even a multi-million S-400 system. And that is without the guy having to even get close to the target. Guess what? USD has sent a very large batch Putin's way. I would be f**ng scared to be on one of Putin's tanks right now. A javelin or a MLAW have the same rate of "economic effectiveness".

It is not only about winning territory or cities, is about having a win that does not leave your army half-destroyed and unable to respond to revolts in other parts of Putin's Tzardom or with such a number of dead soldiers or POWs that he can no longer propagandize his way out of the fiasco.

Quote from: be.open on March 22, 2022, 02:04:44 AM

Quote from: paxmao on March 21, 2022, 09:16:42 PM

I am not even going to bother answering your shitty propaganda.

And yet you just did it.

...

And with that answer you are implicitly confirming that even yourself considered it as propaganda Cool

Pretty sure we'd see millions of casualties if Russia wanted to carpet shell a city. There's also no point of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks when there's a Father of All Bombs in your arsenal. Plus the hypersonic missile kinda proved that if Russia didn't care for civilians they could've take out Zelenksy on day one just with a press of a button.

Very doubtful of effectiveness of those switchblades, but sure lets imagine that they're a game changer as claimed. US litters every meter of Ukrainian soil with them along with ATGM and MANPADS. But what's the point, what's the end goal, is it to maximize damage on Russia at a cost of Ukraine or someone believes that Putin will just turn around and leave? Taking Afghanistan as an example, do you think civilians benefited from all of the advanced weapons Afghani soldiers received to fight Taliban? The benefit for US is pretty clear, US gets to fuck with Russia with minimal cost and zero risk to itself, sure why not, lets do another escalation. Now what options will Russia have? Either fold and go home to a guaranteed economical, political and possibly (physical?) suicide, or in a mirror reply to escalation with escalation. Either start getting military help from China, or raise the stakes that's where real carpet bombing will start, go full scorched earth like US in Vietnam. Cost/benefit for US is pretty clear, but is anyone still thinks that Ukraine is in control of any of this? Anyone dares to do a cost/benefit analysis on civilians if Ukraine accepts the terms or at this point they're pretty much committed to just being a pawn and have no choice but to be a battle ground for this east vs west game to their last citizen?

If you're still not disillusioned that this is about Ukraine. Here we have Macron saying

Quote

“We will be facing a world-wide food crisis,” Macron said in an interview with France Bleu radio on Tuesday. “I want to put in place a food voucher [system] to help the most modest households and the middle class facing these additional costs.”

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-22-22/h_7c10a14208a9646586b8dc400c9a51f5

And then Biden saying That we're at inflection point for new world order can't imagine any of this is good for Ukraine and if warmongering will make things any better for Ukraine

There is nothing left of Mariupol. It is gone. They did shell it nearly to flatness and Putin's ships are now destroying a massacring what's left.

No Ukraine is not in control, but, at this point, looks like Putin isn't either. He cannot withdraw without achieving significant objectives or his reputation would be gone and his Russia would, under his own vision, humiliated.

As harsh as it is to speak of the balance between human life and territory, I am afraid that yes, there is balance to be considered. The basis of this war is that Ukrainians do not want to be ruled by Putin and are willing to die for it.

On the weaponry, I think it is not a magic wand, but it is a game changer. With a man portable tank destroyer you have to get really close to a big nasty and ready to kill main battle tank - I would not want to be there honestly. If you can send a drone from 20 miles away and do the job at zero risk to the guy, it changes the game and - my point - it changes the economics. It makes destroying very expensive weapons relatively cheap.

Putin will push forward, but, as impressive as his army may appear, it has a limit. Producing good war stuff is really expensive and eventually does lead to the economical impossibility of waging war or doing so with some effectiveness.

I see people using the terms carpet shelling/bombing, and encouraging escalations in Ukraine, but i'm pretty sure they don't know what those terms really mean. Just find it ironic how everyone wants to see Ukraine take on Russia, and they're even willing to sacrifice their...weapons for it. This is what US did in just 11 days (18–29 December 1972). Those that call for escalations are they really expecting Putin just to fold and not do the same thing US did? Or did Geneva convention changed since 1972? Does Russia have much else to loose? What are the odds people put on Putin just folding?

Quote

During Operation Linebacker II, 741 B-52 sorties were dispatched to bomb North Vietnam; 729 completed their missions. B-52s dropped 15,237 tons of ordnance on 18 industrial and 14 military targets (including eight SAM sites) while fighter-bombers added another 5,000 tons of bombs to the tally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Linebacker_II

I see a high probability of a new world order coming up. If it happens all the lines will be redrawn anyway. If it doesn't choosing death over Putin seems pretty silly if Russia will collapse once again in 1yr.