Quote from: Trolololo on April 02, 2014, 12:24:29 PM

The top of the next bubble would peak around 100,000 USD/XBT at around end of September 2014 (6 months from now).

It is possible. The final parabolic ascent of the bubble goes as quickly as 100+% per week and the very top can be 50-100% per day (or as in 2013-11-18 in China: +133% in the final day). If we steadily rise to $3000 in the following 5 months, and then rise +100% for 4 weeks, and the final day is again +100%, then we are at $100,000.

What has happened before, can happen again, and - I don't know why - but with Bitcoin I have the feeling that the probability of something repeating is higher than random. I just bought a castle with the money I earned by assuming that the 11/2013 bubble will be similar to 4/2013 bubble, which it was.

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The image (BiscoinWisdom: MtGox 3 days log chart (background and faded, timescale on top) vs Bitstamp 3 days log chart (front, timescale at the bottom), merged with a simple photoshop resize) simply shows that the shape of the two 2013 bubbles is quite the same than the two pre-bubbles of 2011 that ended in the superbubble of Jun 2012.

The previous superbubble was in Jun 2011 (instead of -12), which is why some of us don't understand your chart.

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So the possibility of a new superbubble in 2014 exists.
I don't know the probability (nobody, in fact), but the possibility exists.

The probability might be quite high, because everybody knows about Bitcoin now and the bubble is nothing else but a self-reinforcing feedback loop, and we have already seen similar behavior.