Quote from: Peter R on April 02, 2014, 03:54:37 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on April 02, 2014, 11:19:28 AM

Take a look at this fractal:

Nice graph Trolololo.

People often scoff at bold predictions (either bullish or bearish) but based on bitcoin's volatility numbers alone, we expect the price to either be much higher or much lower in a year or two.

How could your scenario play out? According to the Metcalfe model, a 100X growth in price would correspond with a 10X growth in adoption levels (from roughly 0.1-0.2% to 1-2%). Could adoption grow this quickly?

Many financial surveys point out that only 2 - 5% of people would be willing to buy bitcoins, suggesting that there is already more than 10X additional demand. But then why aren't they buying?

I would argue that it is presently too difficult to both buy and secure one's coins. This must change.

As we speak, at least 1,000 bitcoin ATMs are being deployed across the world and more will come later. This is vital infrastructure to allow people to exchange cash for coins should a new bull run begin.

Similarly, Second Market and the Winklevoss twins are pushing towards regulated bitcoin exchange products (ETFs). These represent important services to allow people to confidently store their coins.

In conclusion, if a new bull run begins as this infrastructure is falling into place, and if the ETFs arrive in the early/mid-porition of this bull run, then I think your scenario is entirely possible.

It is interesting that the "super crash" in your graph would correspond to the adoption level (1 - 3%) of the "chasm" on the technology adoption curve.

Thanks, Peter.

I just put one chart upon the other in photoshop and it astonished me how well they fit.

How could adoption grow this quickly?
You have answered that question better than I could.

You also make me realize a very good point:
the supercrash of 2015 (100k to 3k) would correspond to the CHASM of bitcoin adoption (1-3%).
That correspondence increases the probability of the 2014 superbubble scenario, in my opinion.