Quote from: af_newbie on September 13, 2022, 01:22:19 PM

Quote from: Agbe on September 13, 2022, 12:44:18 PM

I heard from radio news this morning that, Russia soldiers are retrieving (running back) from Ukrainian soldiers. As for me, I thought that the war is over because the hit has been drastically reduce to some extent. I don't know why this war is still on. I believe the war will not extend go far again. What I mean is that, the war will not cause world war 3 again because some people were saying that the war would caused world war which would have involved other world powers and minor countries to support themselves. What do you really think that will stop this fight? I am really tired of hearing these two countries fight. I believed Russia is the side that is still prolonging the war. Although, I do not know who is disobeying the rules to stop the war.

This war is far from over.

Ukrainians have to complete the breakout in the Kherson front and collapse the Luhansk front.

Landbridge and Crimea have to be cleaned up to eliminate Russian citizens and their collaborators.

Most will be decided this winter.

Au contraire, i feel like we're closer to WW3 than ever. Personally I didn't expect such scale of UA counteroffensive. We went from UA being unable to even attempt to break the siege of Mariupol in May, to suddenly UA claiming to have taken 6.000 square km in like a week in September. Either you believe in UA super soldiers, superman, Santa Claus and other fairy tales or as a proxy US/EU sent a ridiculous amount of weapons to UA to a point where

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“The military stocks of most member states has been, I wouldn’t say exhausted, but depleted in a high proportion, because we have been providing a lot of capacity to the Ukrainians,” Borrell said during a discussion with other EU officials.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/05/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

And now UA requested 2.000 more missiles for their "16" Grin

launchers 155mm shell has a kill radius of around 100m assuming even the same for HIMARS, if my math is right, 100m radius is 31.400m^2 so 2.000 missiles wold have a kill area of 62.800.000m^2 or 62.8km^2 with a kill zone of up to 80km. Meaning just with HIMARS US would let UA wipe out any 63km^2 with GPS precision by a press of a button. Now the "fun" part is what happens next, either RU just packs up and goes home knowing fully that it'll implode and be dismantled, or it escalates, gloves off full mobilization and declaration of war, with a possibility of nuclear strike if anyone decides to continue to intervene. For convenient reason all of the propaganda doesn't mention that this is an existential threat for RU, and such option is even on a table for RU.

As far as timing, UA needs high mobility to maneuver fast, and break the front lines deep into RU territory like that. That advantage would be mostly gone by winter, and it's back to grinding one meter at a time by RU artillery. Also there will be a lot of social unrest (after midterm elections in US) and heating season starts in EU. Devaluation of EUR/GBP, job losses, and inflation would surely take UA off the front pages. So UA needs to deliver before bad weather comes in (and then face full mobilization) or just hope really really hard that Putin folds and just decides to retire, guess it is still technically a possibility in our multiverse.

Also as another unknown, the more the west depletes its military stock the higher the chance of China making a move on Taiwan. Kinda what we're seeing in Armenia and Azerbaijan now

Quote from: suchmoon on September 13, 2022, 01:57:23 PM

Quote from: DaRude on September 13, 2022, 02:27:26 AM

At average of $2k/month for 6months that's $12k per contractor. So just that money from EU and US $1,98B, would get Wagner 165.000 contractors for 6months.

It wouldn't. Wagner has trouble hiring as it is. Earlier in the year they were taking only people with military experience, now it's open to anyone with a pulse basically... including people with criminal records. Even Russians don't want to die for $2k and the ones that do aren't much better than the cannon fodder from Tatarstan or ORDLO.

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https://t.me/grey_zone/14946

Mercs work for patriotism but mostly money so double it to $4k/m spend $4B open up to Kazakhstan, Belarus, Syria, Iran etc... and you get 165k contractors for 6months

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Russia's state-run gas major Gazprom reported record net profit for the first half of the year on Tuesday, as elevated market prices continue to aid the Kremlin.
The company earned $41.75 billion, or 2.5 trillion rubles, from the start of 2022. That's up from about 968 billion rubles in the first half of 2021.
Gazprom is also considering paying investors a dividend after not doing so last year. Its board recommended paying 51.03 rubles per share, bringing the total payout to 1.208 trillion roubles.
Gazprom's record profits this year come as the West imposed sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. While they largely steered clear of directly banning gas sales, Europe has scrambled to look for alternatives to Russian supplies.
Meanwhile, Dutch TTF, the natural gas benchmark in Europe, is up more than 1,000% compared to a year ago as Gazprom has slashed deliveries and raised concerns about winter shortages.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/russias-state-run-gas-major-141727603.html