Quote from: suchmoon on October 01, 2022, 08:43:32 PM

Quote from: DaRude on October 01, 2022, 07:31:43 PM

Just replace the subject to something from the other side and see if such claim can still be applied to the other side.

We've seen all kinds of whataboutism in this thread and none of it has made any sense so far. Neither does this.

Nor does it make sense for you to be trying so hard to prove that Russia has blackmail potential. I mean of all things... this is important?

Quote

As far-right parties score election victories across the EU, the nationalist Alternative for Germany party is looking to translate economic anxiety into similar gains. The polls suggest that the strategy is working.
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The AfD was founded in 2013 as a euroskeptic party. And still, their position is that Germany should leave the EU
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"They are saying that corrupt lawmakers are ignoring the needs of the people. They're arguing that elites in Moscow aren't the victims of these sanctions policies, but the German people are."
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The message that the AfD is trying to send to the governing coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) is clear: "You are not in charge of Russia — you're in charge of this country."
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ˈThe worse things are for Germany, the better things are for the AfDˈ Indeed, AfD co-chair Tino Chrupalla has repeatedly accused Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government of fighting an "economic war" against Germans as inflation has risen to over 8%. The sanctions "are not in Germany's interest," Chrupalla has insisted, predicting that "throughout the fall, support for the government's policies will continue to sink."
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According to figures published by research firm INSA, national support for Scholz's party has fallen from 25.7% in last year's federal election to 18% on Monday, the FDP has been reduced by half to 7% and even the Green Party is now experiencing a backlash against their plans to mitigate the gas shortage.
The AfD, in the same time frame, has risen in the national polls from 10% to 15%, one of its highest levels ever.
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As households across Germany are shocked to receive their heating bills, the right-wing populists see golden opportunities ahead.
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Under the slogan "a hot autumn against cold feet," the AfD has announced plans to hold weekly anti-government marches in the coming months
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The AfD leader announced a concerted protest movement against the government's energy and Russia policies. From October, the AfD wants to take to the streets with the rallying cry "Our country first!" Chrupalla declined to confirm that this was modeled on Donald Trump's "America first" campaign.

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-far-right-afd-hopes-for-a-boost-in-times-of-crisis/a-63252759

Just them is 15% of Germans. Right, of course Putin totally blew up his own gas pipeline to Germany, why would he want to appeal to people that side with him and build up Germans political will, he totally didn't want any news coverage of them protesting for Germany to start deliveries over NS so he blew it up 3 months before Germany's toughest months begin Cheesy

next you'll tell us that unicorns are real?

I don't even like ultra rights but any attempts at denying them sweeping EU is delusional, just as Putin destroying his own pipes to remove even a chance for the debates over turning on NS

Quote from: paxmao on October 01, 2022, 10:21:55 PM

Quote from: be.open on September 29, 2022, 12:31:33 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on September 29, 2022, 11:58:13 AM

Quote from: DaRude on September 29, 2022, 05:40:50 AM

Ohh what a clever idea, think so far this one takes the prize, following that logic instead of just turning the pipelines off, Russia should just start blowing all of them up, you know that'll really get the gas prices going up. You should've been more careful disclosing such ingenious ideas, now Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela might find out just how lucrative it can be to blow up their own most valuable pipelines! Roll Eyes

Uhm... make sure you're sitting down for this one: Russia had already turned the pipeline off. They've done it multiple times for ridiculous made up reasons. They've exhausted the blackmail potential on that one. Closing it off for a few weeks apparently just makes Germany work even harder on arranging alternative supplies, instead of wanting to cave (stop Ukraine weapon supplies, open NS2 etc), who could have possibly guessed.

Blowing it up though creates a few new potential scenarios, like threats to other pipelines etc. Again, this is Russian propaganda staple, what with apocalyptic "Europe freezing" scenarios etc. I'm not sure why you're now doing 180 from the gas blackmail and claim Russia couldn't have possibly done it. I guess trying to drive a wedge between the US and Europe is the new propaganda pivot. Good luck with that. Nothing unites more than a common enemy, especially a deranged lunatic like Putin.

If we ignore the propaganda crap and take a sober look at things, it suddenly turns out that the United States is the main beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the European Union is its main victim.

The US and Europe are not only NATO allies, but also competitors. By fomenting and sustaining the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States strengthens its economy and weakens the economy of the European Union. The US military-industrial complex receives large orders, and the European military-industrial complex is suffering from an energy crisis and cannot turn around at full strength. After the sabotage on the Nord Stream, the German industry can be confidently put an end to. No, Europe will not freeze this winter, but it will be largely deindustrialized. And next year, in addition to the current problems, Germany will have a problem with millions of unemployed from the stopped energy-intensive industry - metallurgy, chemistry, cars, etc. Germany from the locomotive of the European Union will turn into its brake. The European Union is fucked.

If you ignore the propaganda crap, you will have no reason to exist.

I can see that you finally realised what I have been saying over and over since months ago: Russia and Europe have never been winner in any war in Europe. The ones benefiting from this one are Saudis, China, US... Note: Certainly not the RF, it is not only coming diplomatically and politically weaker, but also fucking its economy for the long term.

In the war of 1914, Europe lost world dominance, in WW II, USA emerged as the superpower is today and now thanks to the Psychos of the RF Russia is bleeding people and has no expectative of growth whatsoever for the next decade and Europe will have ... a bump in the road until they unlink from RF gas.

Again, I mentioned a while ago that, thanks to Adolf Putin and the Psycos in the RF army:

- EU has more debt and has to undergo an energy transformation.
- RF has extended its border with NATO by thousands of kilometres and has driven two neutral countries into the NATO.
- Has been proven as an unreliable supplier.
- Has been sanctioned and is unlikely to ever recover its stance in the world.
- Has lost the technological and professional elites that are needed for the progress of a country.

In essence, has lost everything that makes a country prosper and be regarded as a partner. Did the US intend this? Of course. Did Adolf Putin acted in the best way to stop it? You tell me genius.

Quote from: Branko on October 01, 2022, 07:25:09 PM

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Putin lost a lot of valuable time trying to appease West...alliance with China and India is much better choice

I think you have lived for too long in a country that let's you speak freely. I urge you to apply for RF citizenship - with your previous military experience you will have the chance to fully enjoy the advantages of an authoritarian regime in the front line, like many of the young unready and unwilling recruited soldiers.

Quote from: DaRude on October 01, 2022, 01:27:16 AM

Quote from: paxmao on September 29, 2022, 09:45:14 AM

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So curiously, the long term effect is only the loss of a valuable infrastructure which damages the German investors in the project but not much more, that is why the retaliation hypothesis makes perfect sense. Also an infrastructure that is precisely in non-NATO territory.

Now, why would the US sabotage the pipeline?
- To fuck like you say his main ally in Europe? (stupid)
- To force Germany to be dependent of Ukraine (not impossible, but still fucking your allies).

The second one makes a 25% sense let's say, but the risk of an international backslash against US in case of being found clearly exceeds any veeeery long shot "advantage".

Bottomline, as it is now, it looks like international terrorism from Adolf Putin's Psychos and the Chief Orcs.

I know all who are commenting here have already picked their truths by virtue of pledging allegiance to one side or the other, but just in case someone is reading here that's truly just trying to make some sense out of this all:
Let's cover leverage first. Surely we must all agree that the point of any sanction/limitation is to apply pressure in order to achieve desired results. By definition, both sides loose from sanctions/limitations, as if trade/agreement wasn't beneficial for both sides it wouldn't have happened in the first place. The big question with sanctions is who looses more! When you tell your kids that no one is going to the movies until they finish their vegetables, the point is that you incentivize them to eat their vegetables, of course you can easily achieve not going to the movies by blowing up your own car but that was never your goal in the first place!

Germany wants Russian gas, Russia want to get paid. Timing of gas payments are not critical to Russia at all (they don't care if they get paid in summer or winter), where timing of gas deliveries is extremely critical to Germany (that's why all gas pipeline maintenance is done during the summer months)! No one cares about gas usage this very day, German gas consumption in September is just above the minimal in August, and Germany has plenty in reserves to cover short term, so Russian doesn't have any leverage for this moment. The leverage comes in play at peaks during Dec-Mar. That's when Russian gas is of critical importance, social unrest and monetary pressures will be at their all time high. Any clown that tries to convince anyone that Russia blew up their own pipeline in September when demand is just starting to climb is just trying to make an imbeciles out of their listeners.

To address your point, whether intentionally or not, you're confusing the RU pumping in gas to fill German reserves that could be used later at critical time vs actually sending gas during that critical time! Just because Russia didn't want Germany to build up their reserves with RU gas during non-critical warmer months and turned off the gas, clearly doesn't mean that RU for some idiotic reason decided to remove any and all advantage it has for the coming most critical winter season where its leverage over Germany would've been at its peak!

Long term, there's absolutely no benefit to Russia to make German gas deliveries dependent on other EU states, think Germany can even consider Brexit? Gerxit? Gexit? when all their gas deliveries go though EU?

I mean Biden straight up spelled out that he'll stop the pipeline, member of the European parliament thanked USA in the post about blown pipeline, and now you try to question why US would do it?? US presidents public intentions are not good enough for you?

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Mostly irrelevant, it does not matter when or how the reserves are used or filled. The fact is that RF shuts the valve and it matters little if the NS is operational or not in the short term and there are still several paths for the gas to fill the reserves if there was a political will, which is not the case.

There are several things in you post that are beyond reality (e.g. a Grexit), stating that the NS I & II are "Russia property",... I cannot even comment on those.

And now,

The RF is not acting in a rational manner as you or I would interpret it. Their prime objective is to act like they always act: twisting arms, threatening, intimidating and terrorising... having an international stance as "though" as Adolf Putin riding a horse half naked. They do not understand anything but retaliation and these attacks look to me like retaliation from miles away. Again, away from NATO territory, so it cannot be interpreted as an attack on a member country.

Again, the hypothesis of the US blowing up European infrastructures is pretty much senseless, as they already have Europe dependent on them for military and economic reasons and, if discovered, it would be such a radical change in relations for the worse that is simply not worth it.

Too many leaks in the pipeline of your "critical thinking".

December is only 2 months away, if the political will to buy RU gas will build up come winter but now Germany will be forced to buy RU gas through Ukraine, will you admit then that you were wrong in your assessment and that it definitely would've been much easier if Germany could arrange for deliveries through NS directly without involving UA?

But then again your covered yourself nicely with assertion of RU acting in irrational manner. That's a nice cover to literally explain any and all possible actions that disadvantage RU as doing of RU itself. i.e. Look they just started to blow up their own subs, and destroy their own gas refineries, told you they were acting irrationally, that's just how their think tanks political/social/economic/research institutes work don't try to think and just believe me Grin

Some reading from 2021 for some context The German government offered the Trump administration financial support of up to €1 billion ($1.21 billion) in a bid to prevent Washington from imposing sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline