Quote from: TwitchySeal on Today at 12:05:52 AM

Quote from: DaRude on October 09, 2022, 11:39:05 PM

Can we stop pretending that instead of protecting its members NATO countries signed up to start a nuclear Armageddon for any tactical nuclear blast in any country around the globe?

Are you pretending that other people are pretending that? It doesn't even make sense. Why would someone pretend that countries want a nuclear Armageddon, and if that's what NATO wanted, why wouldn't it of already happened?

Glad we agree that RU nuclear strike on UA doesn't mean there will be a nuclear response or a war between NATO and RU. No you missed my point, NATO doesn't want Armageddon (in fact this is exactly the reason why they're refusing to send modern tanks to UA).

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 01:32:29 AM

Quote from: DaRude on October 09, 2022, 11:39:05 PM

It would be very helpful if you'd educate yourself on a subject before commenting. Or you should let Z know that they need to stop asking for tanks as their highest priority. Putin is not bluffing about retaliating with a nuke.

Retaliating for what? Ukraine has been getting tanks, AFV/IFV, artillery, SAM and other missiles, and a bunch of other stuff from NATO countries for many months now. But sending some additional tanks now would justify a nuclear response? Rhetorical question BTW. It wouldn't. Trying to spin into "Ukrainians fault for getting nuked" is still as absurd as it always was.

Right now we're pretending to not know the difference between old Soviet junk and modern tanks? But please entertain us with your version of why NATO is not sending modern tanks to UA? Perhaps they're too busy playing Dota? Or requests just keep getting lost? Or they can send millions of 155mm shells but logistics to send tanks are just too hard? Or they're secret RU Orcs too?

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 01:32:29 AM

Quote from: DaRude on October 09, 2022, 11:39:05 PM

Sure, technically he can also decide just to gift Crimea to UA again on Z's birthday, and many other things, by why would he? I understand that propaganda would like everyone to think that RU can just turn around, drink some tea at home and everything goes back to normal, but everyone realizes that backing out would mean dissolution of RU as we know it, there is no off ramp for Russia on this.

All other things being equal, losing the war would result in the same or worse outcome, except after more months or years of costly war.

Agreed. So RU options are either a chance to hold on to their resources and deliveries to EU and a guaranteed destruction. Doesn't take a genius to figure out what they'll do

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 01:32:29 AM

Quote from: DaRude on October 09, 2022, 11:39:05 PM

That's why mobilization and talks about nukes, that's what an existential threat means, RU has no choice but stand till the end on this one way or the other), hypothetically even if for some reason Putin goes mad and decides just to say sorry and turn the troops around, as was discussed previously, chances are there would be a military coup and a military general or a communist take over that same day.

Oh no, the horror, the dictator could be replaced, possibly with another dictator. How will we ever get over this.

Sure let's extend all this effort for a high probability of a worse outcome? Worked so great in Afghanistan and Libya right?

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 01:32:29 AM

Quote from: DaRude on October 09, 2022, 11:39:05 PM

The illusion that there's some opposition in Russia that is anti-war, green, liberal, and EU loving second in line waiting to jump in, is just that, an illusion. Now Biden on the other hand, can deescalate any time he wants (lack of new significant military commitments is an indication to me that he already started)

Lend-lease just barely started. That's about as big of a commitment as it gets.

I suggest you check new commitments and deliveries to UA after RU declared partial mobilization

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 01:32:29 AM

Quote from: DaRude on October 09, 2022, 11:39:05 PM

RU is just going through it's first partial mobilization but sure i have no problem admitting that RU's regular military force was not enough to counter all of NATO's military equipment that's depleting US & EU stock with pretty much fully mobilized Ukraine.

That's quite pathetic, pretty much copypasta from Kremlins excuse list. After months of losing military equipment and personnel, Russia can't plug these holes with untrained cannon fodder. Mobilized drunks can't fly airplanes and can't make airplanes. The best they can do is get a rusty Kalash and shoot it the general direction of the enemy.

Right how mobilized Russians with previous combat experience could possibly compare with super mega ultra warrior conscripts of Ukraine and super sober uber special forces of the 8th? mobilization wave of Ukraine? Roll Eyes

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 01:32:29 AM

Quote from: DaRude on October 09, 2022, 11:39:05 PM

We seem to be in between the denial and anger stages now. As things get more desperate for UA their attack will completely stall before reversing within a month or so. We'll enter the anger stage with more pointless attacks inside RU and more and more radical statements (about preemptive nukes, someone providing MAD assurances to UA etc...) and straight up radical accusations from Z and his team towards the west. If by January UA is still taking land from RU I'll fully agree that my assessment was wrong

Nuclear fantasies aside (again), Ukrainians have been bombing the shit out of Russian supply routes and depots etc for months now, while Russian response has fizzled. There is a reason they're using Iranian mopeds and had to modify C300 for surface-to-surface use and keep blatantly targeting high-density residential buildings. Let's see if you can figure that reason out before January.

hope you're right and we won't see more IEDs blowing up in Russia