Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 03, 2023, 08:57:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 03, 2023, 08:22:51 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 03, 2023, 01:44:22 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 03, 2023, 01:39:04 PM

[edited out]

Those charts a big part of your life?

Do you really think they help you calculate what will happen next?

Or are they a way to cope because "the future is not ours to see Que Sera Sera"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

I am not even suggesting that I agree with dragonvslinus in a majority of cases (actually, I am not sure how much I agree with him, but I recall that I used to disagree with him a lot more when he used to be more bearish.. but either he has come around or I have come around.. I am not sure?), and sometimes, I do consider that he is putting too much weight into aspects of the predictive capabilities of his charts (and likely limitations in regards to what could happen) based on such charting techniques.

Yeh for clarity I was a lot more bearish once Bitcoin broken below $18K to $15.5K, after initially thinking the bottom was likely in with initial capitulation to $17.5K, as well as had little to no conviction that price would hold $15.5K, as instead thought $12K or $14K was looking more likely. Took me a couple of months to be convinced that it was possible after enough consolidation, then was bullish again with the break above around $19K.

I'm thinking that I had more troubles accepting and/or understanding your various presentations in 2018 / 2019 and maybe not as much recently and I am not even sure if it had to do with our going through some kind of bear market or some other reason(s). Sure, even recently from time to time, there have been some situations in which I don't agree with you and I believe that you are either assigning weights badly or you are relying on some indicators that I don't consider to be as important or I might not really like your explanation, yet frequently, I will still send you smerits whether I agree or not because sometimes you will present some angle that seems generally informative. even if other conclusions might be reached, there can be some aspects of your posts/analysis that might help me or others to better think about why we might believe that the BTC price is going to move in one direction or another, but then your analysis could give us some things to lock onto, even if some of us might sometimes not agree with the conclusions reached therein.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 03, 2023, 08:57:10 PM

I'm never been one for being accurate on bear market bottoms to be honest, as all the technicals are always screaming bearish, I'm better on trend changes as the technicals are a lot more obvious.

I don't necessarily put a lot of weight into predictions or prognostics merely because they end up being right, since we likely know/realize that many times, minority scenarios end up playing out, so I am not going to necessarily give credit to someone merely because they either got it right or got it wrong.. and it does sometimes urk me when guys (and gals) want to get more credit than they likely deserve merely for getting some prediction right...

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 03, 2023, 08:57:10 PM

The irony being that during those 200-ish days a DCA average would have been around $19.5K, whereas $20K dip buying and $19K break-out got me the same price, with less effort, while being completely wrong. Just saying.

Sure, sometimes that can by funny (or ironic) how some kinds of persistent buying practices (such as DCA) might end up equally performing or even out performing guys who might spend 100s of hours studying charts and attempting to employ buying (and risk management) strategies based on their hundreds of hours assessing and timing their purchases in regards to their assessments of the situation.

I am not even proclaiming that DCA might not be beatable, even in the long term, but it is quite the challenge to plug in some kind of a long term DCA assessment and to compare the extent to which the performance is better or not.. and then to consider whether time is being fruitfully used when the performance difference might not be enough to justify the time spent... and sure sometimes there might be some other benefits in staying in touch with BTC price performance dynamics, besides merely trading on them... I have watched BTC price charts for the overwhelming majority of the more than 9 years that I have been involved in bitcoin, and I would proclaim that any kind of trading or position changes that I make based on my assessments of BTC price direction are surely rare events. or at least they are largely tweaks rather than being materially significant.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 03, 2023, 08:57:10 PM

Anyway, my theories of where price could next, whether back down to $20K or upto $30K shouldn't really be considered limitations just my perceived likelihoods. For sure we could double bottom at $15K (especially since we've seen a local double top), or otherwise continue onto $30K. It's purely my belief in the likelihoods/probabilities or these scenarios, which I find relatively low right now. Probably the key point here is that I'm able to change my perception on bullish/bearish based on price change/action, unlike many others who are fixated on only one reality or the other, unable to change opinion etc.

Sure.. it is a good quality to tweak some of the predictions from time to time based on market changes, and some of us still might come to differing conclusions in terms of our level of confidence, so there may be some of us who might be able to see how your position had changed, but not willing to make our own changes to whatever bets that we are willing to just ride out, even if you happened to have seen something (and disclosed it) that was materially relevant enough in order to potentially make some tweaks to the already outstanding bets. I don't mind seeing some of those kinds of views, even if it may well take a whole hell of a lot more convincing to get me to budge in terms of changing a system that I already have in place and I tend to change based on a variety of my own circumstances that count "views about price direction" to usually not change the systems that are already in place.. .so I am frequently willing to just let it ride.. even if some of my bets could be tweaked a wee bit to account for some kind of thing that I consider to have become more likely to occur than it had been at an earlier time.

Quote from: El duderino_ on March 03, 2023, 09:14:52 PM

...
...... just found myself a new girl as very recently
Grin

El Duderina

That does not sound very good, in the "departamento de feminina"... especially if "she" has an "el" prefix.

Pouring one out for dee dude... and dee dudette.