Quote from: rpietila on April 14, 2014, 07:03:11 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 06:44:22 PM

Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask. Grin

I am sure you can make some very profitable bets with the fellow posters, who have given quite different odds!

I propose geometric mean, such that:
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
=> sqrt(0.01*0.7) = 8.4%.

You pay 1 / 8.4% = 11.952 units if you lose
He pays 1 / 91.6% = 1.092 units if you win.

Normalized, this is 10.948 : 1.

Both people in the wager have about 8 times better odds than they estimated as current, wonder why there is so little of this! Grin

Jorge is NOT going to bet b/c he is really NOT committed to his numbers.

There are a few other posters here who are also NOT committed to their numbers.

I would make small bets on my projections especially if the spread is comfortable for me, and certainly it is easier to bet when you know someone else's projections in order to figure out the spread.