Quote from: ranochigo on Today at 02:26:05 PM

Sorry, edited my post a bit to reflect what I am talking about.
hashrate, you will always win.

Yeah, I have noticed that you have added two rather clarifying paragraphs.

Quote from: ranochigo on Today at 02:26:05 PM

My scenario describes a process where it can happen naturally (ie. occurs in a non-malicious intent). It has happened at least once: https://medium.com/deribitofficial/was-there-a-bitcoin-double-spend-on-jan-20-2021-45bdbd178c58.

Note that your number confirmation is in the perspective of which chain you're looking at. Hence, with the malicious intent, this is what an adversary would do given that he owns a significant portion of the hashrate...

In other words, in the scenario without malicious intent, it is rare that someone has actually attempted a double spend because it is extremely unlikely to happen and trying to guess when it might happen is like trying to guess the lottery numbers. Or even less likely.

And the malicious case, I see it as a fairly high level of conspiracy in addition to having the luck that miner to mine the blocks he needs, so that probability is almost 0 as I see it and it would only be worth trying with large amounts of bitcoins. Even more difficult and unlikely with 2 or 3 confirmations.