Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 5 from 5 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
gallianooo
on 19/08/2023, 21:11:52 UTC
⭐ Merited by LoyceV (1) ,ivomm (1) ,JayJuanGee (1) ,vapourminer (1) ,d_eddie (1)
Lot of WO members still surprised it was finally not « the last time we saw this BTC price » or not the « last bargain ».

I am still confident since I am heavily invested in BTC from early 2015 for LONG term (more longer than another cycle).

However, how ‘early’ BTC investors can be still surprised or naive after all the fact we have since the 2021 ATH cycle ?

- Weak ATH double top
- ‘Only’ x3.5 since 2017 ATH (20->69K).
- NO real rebound / signifiant bear market really on all the down 69->15.5K. Means : down almost 78% from the ATH with a shy x3.5 ATH.
- Went for the first time below the previous ATH (and more than 20% below).
- Staying below for months and below the 200 EMA.
- Some members compare with 2019, but in 2019 we had a real bear market rally till almost 14K (20K->3K->14K). Only thing we did till now it’s ‘only’ x2 from 15.5 to 31K after this straight down 69->15.5K without any substantial reaction. WEAK.

Current facts are BTC had a « weak » bullrun in 2021 (compare to previous ones), but  still kept a strong bear market without any ‘impressive’ bear market rally since almost 2 years.

AND we are still +/- 8months away from the halving. And most probably no spot ETF validation before Q1 2024 (if accepted).

And, without enter in the detail,  traditional markets, especially NASDAQ100 not smelling good for the next weeks/months.

So from a ‘bearish’ side we still have place and time to get  ‘new BTC bargain’ before the end of this year / early 2024.

DCA from now till end the year / halving time should probably be a good risk/reward.