This might sound unreal but Bitcoin takes approximately 1.3 years to get to a new ATH. if we consider the halving dates and then check the new ATH, as an average it concludes. I am not speculating anything as it is a simple calculation of the average. just take a look:
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
there are rational reasons
many large mining farms do not audit thier costs/profit daily. instead they buy allotments of asics and electric contracts to last 2+ years. meaning they calculate cost vs earnings every 1-2 years(for tax and upgrade purposes). thus even though a halving changes the reward earned. the asic farms are not adjusting their price/value until their year-end audit when its time to file for taxes or upgrade hardware reaching its end-of-life.. thus they wont raise their prices until a year later when its time to shuffle funds about
the other factor is that when halvings occur their is a rush of asic purchases. which is where people double up+ their hashrate to cling onto a comparable yield of rewards. this increase of hashrate and hardware also puts pressure on prices. again their is a delay
but yes in short the pattern has real reasons.
however
now many are aware of the pattern, speculative traders are preparing for such occurrences and so by knowing a trading pattern can cause speculators to trade against the pattern to cause the pattern to change