Quote from: Hamza2424 on October 16, 2023, 07:20:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 12, 2023, 10:03:51 PM

Holy shit, Hamza2424.
You know that a cycle is ONLY 4 years long?

Nooo.. But approximately that can be a dominant figure, it may vary according to the market developments. The figures may deviate from the last patterns, But to keep in short most people try to understand the concept of the Bitcoin market cycle from halving to halving but it's really challenging to predict the exact timeline as many factors may influence it.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 12, 2023, 10:03:51 PM

And, sure maybe "we" could give you a wee bit of a benefit of a doubt and to suggest that you really meant two cycles.. this cycle and the next one, but that still ONLY gets you 8 years under the most generous of interpretations of your own words.

Ahh.. Well, thank you for the benefit of the doubt,. What I mean is at the end of the coming cycle maybe around 2028 to 2029. I cant be sure about the figures..

Ok. I will bite.

That looks like 1.5 cycles.. but still your numbers going from where ever we might be to 30%.. .. and yeah if you really think that we are currently at 10% to 12% then your numbers might seem more reasonable. I am probbly not going to go there.. and by the way, if you think about what 10% to 12% means, then the world population has recently crossed over 8 billion, so you are suggesting that 800 million to 960 million are already directly/indirectly exposure to bitcoin .. .. seems a bit much... like 10x more than my estimates.. but hey maybe direct/indirect exposure depends on quantity of BTC measures.

Quote from: Hamza2424 on October 16, 2023, 07:20:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 12, 2023, 10:03:51 PM

Maybe in the last almost 15 years we have gone from zero to 1%.. and gosh are we being generous with even thinking that 1% of the world's population somehow has some exposure to bitcoin that would mean that bitcoin is a priority for them?..

I have my doubts, but it is not easy to measure bitcoin adoption.. but we could say that 1% of the worlds population is right around 80 million people... so in the next 4-8 years you are suggesting that bitcoin adoption is going to be 20x to 30x that number.. which, with the same quantity of world's population would be 1.6 billion to 2.4 billion.

You've said it on your own that it's really hard to figure out the efficient measures but I doubt that in your calculation the 1% is inadequate, as per the developments and the recognition level we can easily say around 10% to 12% of the population has exposure of the Bitcoin directly or indirectly and around 1/2 of this figure will have direct relations with Bitcoin.

I would think that at least a certain quantity of BTC holdings would be necessary.. more than $10 worth?.. $10.. would be right around 0.003 BTC at today's prices, and maybe by 2028/2029 $10 worth of bitcoin might be anywhere between 0.0001 to 0.00001.. .that is $100k to $1million.

Yes.. indirect versus direct.. I don't really have a BIG problem with that, except maybe some of the doubt counting that could exist.. but I suppose if someone is supposedly holding BTC through a 3rd party, then that would be indirect exposure, versus holding their own keys.

Quote from: Hamza2424 on October 16, 2023, 07:20:11 PM

For making future predictions, I'm basing my analysis on crisis levels. It appears that the magnitude of a crisis correlates with higher adoption rates. In recent times, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly accelerated market growth, leading to a substantial upswing in both recognition and adoption rates.

Ok... sure there could be some events that end up happening that spark recognition (aka awareness) and adoption of bitcoin... I still have trouble seeing how you get to 20% to 30%, but you did suggest that you are wanting another half of a cycle.. so you are requesting 1.5 cycles.. if starting from now.. rather than one cycle, .. and you don't necessarily need two cycles.. even though what you said was ambiguous enough to be able to potentially carry for two cycles... I am glad that you are not trying to get too greedy in your framing.

Quote from: Hamza2424 on October 16, 2023, 07:20:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 12, 2023, 10:03:51 PM

I think that you are referring to psychology, right?

Yeah.. A typo error, Most of the time I really take care of it, but sometimes especially when typing on a smartphone it's hard to deal with.

so you are admitting that your fingers are fat?

Quote from: JimboToronto on October 16, 2023, 08:22:19 PM

Quote from: ChartBuddy on October 16, 2023, 08:01:15 PM

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

A picture is worth 1000 words. Look at those shifting walls.

A large ask wall to keep the price down, shifting to a big bid wall to keep it from falling too low.

Manipulation at its finest.

I am glad that one of "us" can understand those gobble-dee-gook lines.

Quote from: Crypto_I.N on October 16, 2023, 10:26:49 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on October 16, 2023, 03:43:23 PM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on October 16, 2023, 03:27:26 PM

These spikes are just noise/outliers... They need to be both long and wide to count.

$40k+ dominating a 5-min chart, then we're talking pump.

Okay, maybe even $35k+...

Maybe they aren’t going to send us to $100K yet, but these are some fairly large pumps that show somebody is buying bigtime right now and with a lot of funds. It isn’t easy to send the market into massive spikes like that and whoever is doing it likely believes the price will be headed much higher so they’re indiscriminately buying all they can.

But this is a positive step when bitcoin starts moving so indirectly this could be a good opening and start to prepare for the halving.
Once again it looks like October is a positive month for bitcoin following some history from October year after year.

We are still ONLY a bit more than half way through.

Funny how peeps want to speculate that king daddy gives any shits about calendar months.

then in the beginning of the month..

"I told you so"

and then a few days ago

"look October is not positive as "they" said"

and then now

"look October is positive, as expected."

blah blah blah^{tm - Greta Thunberg}