Quote from: Paashaas on December 27, 2023, 08:16:46 AM

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/22/the-spot-bitcoin-etf-race-could-quickly-reach-your-401k-plan.html

Oh? I initially misread this... but let me start with the initial ideas that some 401k plans have more options than others, and so it will be interesting to see if some of the more conservative plans, including government related plans are going to adapt to adopt these newer kinds of investment options. Many of the government plans do not have such flexibilities in terms of their investing options (they mostly have various kinds of index funds), and some private plans are more adventurous (with more options than others), but if anything close to the 12 applicants.. even perhaps 8 of them, end up getting approved, then a lot of retirement plans will thereafter have them as one of the options.

Regarding my initial reading of that message in thinking about bitcoin to 401k parity... I think that many of us who have been into bitcoin for a while may well have run into these kinds of parity of value kinds of issues, and it can be a strange feeling to have your bitcoin go up in value (price) so much in a relatively quick time.

In late 2013 when I started in bitcoin I was thinking that it may well end up taking around 20 years for my BTC holdings to reach my 401k holdings, especially since I had already been investing in my 401k holdings (or some variation of them) for nearly 20 years prior to getting into bitcoin.. even though the 401k did not really become more popular until the end of the 90s, there were still ways to convert some stuff into 401k-like plans back then.. ,

So thinking about reaching bitcoin to 401k value parity could take 20 years or maybe even a bit longer for such parity to be reached... and that was considering that maybe i would also just keep buying bitcoin all during that speculated time period.. and also when anyone gets into any new investment, it can take a bit of time to build it up and/or to consider how it might play out. .so the what to do next, might be partially driven by how each and all of whatever investments are being held are performing, and then someone (like yours truly) might consider that maybe at a point 10-20 years or longer down the road be able to stop buying something like bitcoin because largely his BTC might have had reached parity with his other investments, including his 401k...

and even for me, in 2013, sure maybe I had some optimistic scenarios of being able to reach such parity in 10 years.. kind of like a better (or best) case scenario, perhaps? perhaps?.. but then these kinds of things can end up happening more quickly .. because I think that certain advantages could come from some of the volatility, and since I started buying BTC at nearly $1,200, I was kind of thinking that the BTC price could stay at those high numbers, so then BTC price appreciation might come from those kinds of higher base prices.. but then when the BTC price ends up going down and BTC continues to be accumulated at those much lower prices, then merely returning to the starting price brings very heavy value appreciation in terms of the whole holdings

So, even though there may be some advantages towards keeping more conservative expectations regarding what the price might do, just in case the parity or whatever (exceeding of parity) might not end up happening, there still can be a number of surprises that end up contributing to greater than expected performance at various points along the way.. And, by the way, of course there is a difference for someone who had just started investing in their 401k in a 4-8 year timeline versus someone who might have had been investing in their 401k for 15-20 years or longer. Wen Parity? Yes, it's an interesting question.

And, sure when available in the 401k is also interesting, even though it still might be questionable how good of a product is the Bitcoin spot ETF as compared with owning bitcoin, but some folks have difficulties investing outside of their 401k.. so the 401ks can be another kind of trap. because if you max them out each year (which is close to $20k in the USA), then the employer might match a portion of that.. perhaps $5k or $10k .. depending on your income... I mean if someone earns around $100k per year, and then the employer might match the first 5% invested in the 401k, then that would be $5k per year of a match, and then the person could end up having an additional $15k per year of what he puts into his 401k that is not matched but it has the tax deferred benefits... .and maybe or maybe not he might not know whether or how much he is able to invest into anything else after that.. $20k per year from a $100k salary person is 20%, so that is already pretty damned aggressive, relatively speaking, including that many folks are not even investing that much and if you get folks investing 10% per year, that is probably quite a bit higher than the norm. And, yes, maybe my example of someone earning $100k per year is a bit above the average income, but not very much.. incomes are getting higher and higher and higher, but still that does not mean that those high incomes are really enough to live anywhere close to what it seems to be... especially since it seems that the dollar is depreciating a pretty high pace that is largely causing difficulties for many assets to keep up - so there is a need to put the value somewhere that at least holds value and maybe even appreciates greater than how fast the dollar is losing value.