Quote from: fillippone on December 27, 2023, 10:35:24 PM

Very lovely and very neatly presented.
I will play more extensively with this in the coming weeks.
I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

It seems to me that visualization of the future how it relates to your stash size, and your withdrawal rate comes through a projection of what the 200-week moving average does, which historically it has ONLY gone up, so far... but then it also has to do with what the BTC price does that will thereby affect how much you are able to withdraw and we are not really projecting future prices, even though we are suggesting that if you keep your withdrawal rate at a certain level, then some of those withdrawal rates are more sustainable than others.

Yeah, I know that I am kind of dodging the suggestion regarding how those kinds of tools (or visualizations) might be added based on knowables but at the same time unknowables... but we are trying to do it based on the knowables, right? which concededly, we can ONLY know so much.

You can see those kinds of historical numbers for the 200-WMA and the future projection of the 200-WMA in my entry-level fuck you status chart, and then in that chart I believe that I am attempting to conservatively project ahead how many BTC it takes to be at entry-level fuck you status in that chart which ends up projecting ahead the 200-week moving average.. which ONLY infers the spot price to be ongoingly higher in order to drag the 200-WMA upwardly and in an ongoing way, so yeah, it could take some creativity to figure out some good ways to attempt to display those kinds of ideas and to intermix the ideas and to include the personal input data in order to really attempt to figure out what might be a more conservative (or way to keep growing your BTC stash while you are withdrawing from it) as compared with a more regular "sustainable" withdrawal rate versus a more aggressive withdrawal rate that is likely going to end up depleting your BTC stash.

It seems to me that using the 200-week moving average as a means to valuate your BTC stash in terms of the bottom prices but then to juxtapose that with the BTC spot price, then we make adjustments to how much we are authorizing ourselves to withdraw based on how far the spot price is from the 200-week moving average, but then at the same time, we should not have to continue to change whatever level of aggressiveness that we choose to employ based on our chosen percentage of withdrawal.

Of course, you can use this particular tool without necessarily reaching entry-level fuck you status, but just to maybe create a budget for yourself or some sub-organization, but let's say that we use entry-level fuck you status as our guideline for how many coins that we feel that we need prior to using the tool, and if we look at my chart, we will see that based on the 200-week moving average, as of the end of November 2023, we would have had needed to have 68.85 BTC to reach the threshold value of $2 million (again based on the 200-week moving average) not based on the BTC spot price, so if we started to withdrawal at a pretty conservative rate of 4% per year (or 1% per quarter or 0.333 per month) as the website would help us to get at those values for today or historically,^** we would be authorized to withdraw 0.2295 BTC per month as long as the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, and we could withdraw extra months depending on how high above the 200-week moving average we are.

** I did just input this info into the website and I noticed that future dates are allowed to be put into the date field, and that must be an error since we currently do not have any formulas for the future, and that is another thing that is difficult about any future trajectory of how much we would be able to withdraw would be based on the then price relative to the 200-week moving average, the BTC price is not at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, we would not be allowed to withdraw the full month's allocation but instead a percentage depending on how low the spot price is on the day that we are doing the calculation... so we might have choices from time to time whether we withdraw the full authorized amount, and then if the BTC price is at least 25% higher we could withdraw the whole month's authorization and if it is 33% or higher then we are authorized to withdraw multiple of months, but we could elect not to withdraw months in advance because maybe we are choosing for when (or if) the BTC price goes to higher levels then we would be authorized to withdraw more months in advance.. and there is a certain presumption of not only withdrawing, but converting to dollars otherwise there is no real benefit to withdrawing the extra months (the advance months) based on the then BTC spot price.

Presumptively if we are withdrawing in a conservative way such as below 6%, then the dollar value of our BTC would have good chances of going up, even though our BTC stack size would be going down, and presumptively if we are withdrawing between 6% to 10% then the fiat value of our stash may well stay at similar levels, and finally the more aggressive that we are beyond 10% then the larger the chance that we are depleting our stash value in terms of its ability to sustain its dollar value at the rate we are withdrawing it... and we label 17% and higher be extremely aggressive and the tool allows going up to 30% per year.. but yeah visualizing how that might affect our level of sustainability might take some higher level math skills (referring to my own challenges to come up with what the right formulas might be and then how to display that .. .which also kinds of reminds me that some of the numbers that I have chosen are somewhat arbitrary in regards to where I chose to divide, which may or may not be eligible for better formulas rather than my having had chosen some of the dividing points)..

Quote from: dkbit98 on December 28, 2023, 05:58:51 PM

Quote from: bitmover on December 27, 2023, 07:22:43 PM

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

Page and chart loads a bit slower on my side, but it looks interesting, maybe like reversed dollar cost averaging.

I have heard people use that term, and I am not much of a fan of that term to apply to the way that I think about cashing out or liquidating or withdrawing your BTC, especially if you are striving towards employing such withdrawals in a sustainable way... . Of course, I am not going to proclaim that you are completely off of your rocker for making that kind of an attempt at a comparison.

Let me see if I can elaborate. If we consider the traditional DCA practice, it is a kind of price blind way buying of BTC that is largely dependent upon what is your discretionary income and then buying when you have the discretionary income so it could be regularly set and kind of mild or it can be maximized in a way that uses all of the discretionary income as that discretionary income comes in.

The system of sustainable withdrawal could look at the whole BTC stash size and then calculate from there or maybe just choosing a portion of the BTC stash that might be to create an income stream for a project and how much money comes through the BTC stash could be ongoing and even perpetual in nature as long as it is more on the conservative side rather than aggressive side. Of course, if someone might be more aggressive in their wanting to get out of BTC, then they could set much higher percentages for withdrawal (which may well be more like reverse DCA - getting out of the BTC position), but I was not considering the tool in that kind of way, even though I suppose it could be used in that kind of way, especially if we are setting it more aggressively with the percentage amounts. I recall that when bitmover first set up the percentage slider, he only allowed it to go up to 20%, and he agreed with my suggestion to go up to 30%, which surely from my thinking would be quite far from sustainable withdraw but it may well be considered to be something like getting out of a BTC position in a reverse DCA kind of a way.. and even with a 30% withdrawal rate, it could end up taking 5 years or more to really deplete your BTC stash, depending on how BTC prices perform.. (I am not sure if it is worth it to allow the tool to go higher than 30%, even though I don't really have an objections to that for someone who might be wanting to get out of his position fast, so maybe we could end up allowing the tool to be used in that kind of a way.. and then call it "reverse DCA"... hahahahahaha that would be funny. I am warming up to the idea of reverse DCA in that kind of a super aggressive withdrawal context).

Quote from: dkbit98 on December 28, 2023, 05:58:51 PM

Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.

Maybe there is a better word? but it seems that I had likely gotten that word (whether subliminally or otherwise) from the idea of a retirement account, and the reference to a withdrawal rate of 3% or 4%, which means that there is withdrawal from the investment and use of the funds for various kinds of consumption and/or income.

Withdrawal is the term that is already used for pretty much the kind of thing that I a trying to describe in regards to bitcoin as the primary asset, and sure no one is saying that bitcoin would be the only asset that a person has, so if we go back to fuck you status, and maybe someone has a variety of accounts stocks, bonds, commodities, properties, and/or perhaps cash and cash equivalents, so there may be choices about how much to withdraw from each, and let's say that bitcoin was half of the amount (so $1 million) and then the other non-bitcoin assets was the other half, so bitcoin might have a certain formula and the others have a certain formula, and maybe we are striving to withdraw $6,666 for our monthly income from all of those sources, so it could be that if we create sustainable withdrawal rates in regards to all of them, such as at 4% per year, then they could likely be withdrawn from forever as long as they are appreciating in value at least on average of 4% per year, but I continue to suspect that bitcoin is going to outperform other assets, and that is part of the reason that it retains a 200-week moving average that continues to move up quite aggressively. .and its worse performance over the last 18 months still had the 200 week moving up at 20% on an annual basis (see the historical depictions of 6 month increments in my fuck you status chart) . So I suppose that part of the reason why the website is labelling 6-10% as sustainable withdrawal is partially based on bitcoin's historical price performance but also some anticipation that the 6-10% per year is sustainable in terms of the bitcoin stash retaining its dollar value, in spite of something like a 6-10% withdrawal rate.

Quote from: dkbit98 on December 28, 2023, 05:58:51 PM

Quote from: bitmover on December 27, 2023, 07:22:43 PM

Please help me find bugs and share your ideas.

Chart bug, it's not always loading and I have blank space in that field.
Even if I refresh page with f5 it still doesn't load.

I was having that issue sometimes too.. I think mostly in Chrome, but then when I switched over to Safari it was working fine.. but then it would resolve itself in Chrome after a while too.

Quote from: bitmover on December 28, 2023, 08:09:47 PM

Quote from: fillippone on December 27, 2023, 10:35:24 PM

I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

Thank you.

I will think about implementations of this. This might be a dull chart, like this
but I think this is necessary.

(this only consider withdrawal 4% anual)

Yes there could be some kind of way of presenting the matter, and for sure if the withdrawal rate is steadily at 4%, then the BTC quantity would go down 4% per year like that, but somehow we would have to account for both the dollar value and also the extent to which we might end up getting throttled in our BTC withdrawal rate if the BTC price might go to less than 25% higher than the 200-week moving average and also, if we withdraw months in advance based on high prices, we may well end up using some of that money to buy back some BTC, sure we cannot presume that we would buy back BTC, merely if we were to withdraw 23 months or more in advance.. so in accordance with the tool, once the BTC price goes more than 400% above the 200-week moving average, then we would be authorized to withdraw 24 months (the current month plus 23 months in advance) and I had built in several of those kinds of authorization that go up to the ability to withdraw 59 months in advance (which is 5 years), so it may well end up being the case that bitcoin does not turn back down in such a way that there is any concerns to want to be able to live off of those advanced amounts, so BTC could end up getting bought back and then increasing the BTC stash and increasing future withdrawals based on quantity of BTC that is being used to calculate future withdrawals.

Historically, we could look back and maybe put in the date of December 17, 2017 and we can see that the tool would have had authorized withdrawing 59 months in advance based on a 1,491% difference between the then spot price and the 200-WMA, but even if the person used such guidance to have monthly living expenses for 59 months, the bear market of 2018, 2019 and 2020 did not last even close to 59 months, so there could have been a determination at some point to use some of those sold months to buy back in, even in early 2019 (between April 1 and the end of June), there could have had been a decision to use some of those extra sold months (the 59 months in advance) to buy back some BTC.. and then reenable the ability to use the tool again.. since by the way, the idea of cashing out in advance means that you cannot sell any more (or withdraw anymore) BTC for all of those months in advance that you had withdrawn absent either using some of the months to buy back BTC, or if the BTC price goes up above the number of months in advance that you had sold in order that you would be authorized additional months to sell (or withdraw more).

Quote from: Prancheiro on December 29, 2023, 01:50:14 PM

Quote from: bitmover on December 28, 2023, 08:09:47 PM

I got those fixed. I made a small change in the code a few hours ago that broke that. Thanks.

Nice! It is working!
BTW, if it is possible to add a field to type the Annual withdrawal rate, it will help. Fine tuning the bar is not easy - at least for me! Haha

I agree that it would be nice if both the slider and the manual entry could exist.. even though the slider does have the nice little changing of descriptors of conservative, moderate, aggressive and severely aggressive.

Quote from: Prancheiro on December 29, 2023, 01:50:14 PM

Quote from: bitmover on December 28, 2023, 08:09:47 PM

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills

I'm sure that's not the goal, but I was thinking about the possibility of using the data and the graph to also indicate potential moments of purchase.
So in the future, if you think it makes sense, you could include some parameters (to be defined by each user), which, when reached, would send an alert indicating the moment.
ex: If the 200WMA drops to x%, send me an alert indicating purchase.

Keep with the work!

That sounds interesting to send alerts and of course we are mostly thinking in terms of alerting for possible sells (since this is a selling tool), but once such a tool is created, it could be used in either direction (meaning for selling and/or for buying).. so I am not sure how difficult it would be to add some kind of a tool like that, but it does sound interesting as a concept...

On the other hand, wouldn't the user have to provide some kind of data such as e-mail or sms.. and then would we be able to blindly interface with that, without collecting any user data? I think that we are probably a bit nervous about any kind of collection or retention of user data.. at least at this point.. but of course, with discussions of monetization some times there can develop trade-offs to weigh differently with the passage of time.