Quote from: Biodom on Today at 09:33:10 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 05:54:05 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 05:33:24 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 04:06:45 PM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 03:54:45 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 03:49:34 PM

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal Cheesy

Could be, but not by as much as you are suggesting, imho.

Well no, not really. It's been well documented in the media and such that this could be an "implosion of new money into Bitcoin" or a "buy the rumour sell the news" type event. So far, I'd say it's the latter, but only time will tell. To me it's more the fact Bitcoin has reached my minimum target for a retracement from ATH to bear market low. It's just a "concidence" it occurred on the day of the ETF launch. Ie, not a coincidence at all.

Even with no ETF launch I'd be taking profits at current levels, because it feels eerily similar to summer 2019 parabolic run, at very similar levels as it were. Even if not I'm anticipating any sort of black swan event, a 35% to 50% correction feel due, much like in 2020 even before the covid crash, ie from $14K to $7K. In this case a think a milder (by %) pull-back to around $30K is in order.

Not gonna lie though, the trend is still bullish, even with current rejection on lower time-frames. It's more the red flags on the chart that's causing me to lose faith in continued upside right now. To me it's the same as $12.8K in 2019, so sure price could go a bit higher in the short-term, but notably anything above $12K back then was a solid selling opportunity. At least until price returned to $7K.

this is not summer of 2019. this is 2016 pre 1/2ing

Sure, price wicks down -40% to $30K rather than $25K, otherwise closing weekly candle around $35K (-27%). No arguments there. 0.618 fib retracement painted the same picture.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 05:44:56 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 03:49:34 PM

Now that i have time to post a longer argument...here it goes:

Now, bitcoin ETF is one of the tradfi assets.
Tradfi asset in a "bull market' is not supposed to decline more than 20% 9and maintain such market). Of course, i know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines, apart from 50% decline in the middle of 2021.
If we plot 20% decline from ~46K (which was the price before the approval), then it s"should not" go below $36.8K
If you count from intraday high of ~48K (but we probably shouldn't), then $38.4K.
We shall see it this prediction would hold.

Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.

Quote from: Gachapin on Today at 05:20:42 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 04:06:45 PM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 03:54:45 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 03:49:34 PM

If you are right regarding a local top Cramer would be too.. And, out of experience, that's extremely hard to swallow....

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Well, 5% is NOT a drop in the ocean....you remind me of my students who think that 5% of a grade is NOTHING, when it is exactly what it is, 5%.

For fun, there are approximately 2.664X10^25 drops in the ocean (https://www.quora.com/How-many-drops-of-water-make-up-the-sea) while ETFs volume is 5 "drops" in a 100 "drops" (about 5ml or about a teaspoon).

For a supposedly "numbers guy" you threw these comparisons around with a bit too much ease, but don't take it as a criticism..I understand what you meant, emotionally, but let's stick to numbers, OK? Peace.

Seriously?! It's a phrase that means "insignificant" as opposed to literally a drop in an ocean, which would be miniscual, quite obviously as it's a phrase that's not meant literally. Maybe this is a British phrase or something?

Can't believe I feel the need to have to do this for something so trivial, but here are dictionary definitions of the phrase for you (spoiler; it has nothing to do 2.664X10^25 drops):

Quote from: Collins Dictionary

If you say that something is a drop in the ocean, you mean that it is a very small amount which is unimportant compared to the cost of other things or is so small that it has very little effect on something.

Quote from: Merriam-webster

an amount that is so small that it does not make an important difference or have much effect

So yes, when we are talking about 5% of volume, I consider it a very small amount. Others may just consider it a small amount, but I'd consider it very small. To me it's the equivalent of a strong wind when driving down the highway/motorway at 70mph/110kmh (en/us context). It's not enough to set take you of course 99% of the time, as it's only about 5% of the force in play, but it does mean you have to adjust for it; that analogy you're welcome to take literally.

My point was more to whoever said that Bitcoin had "become TradFi". Whereas actually it's 95% not TradFi, and won't be, until ETF volume is at least 51%.