Quote from: BTCdragosfera on Today at 10:35:50 PM

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 10:31:16 PM

Quote from: ObscurePen on Today at 10:11:24 PM

I think in the last cycle price dipped to 16.6k lower than 19.5k (prev cycle's high) But the one before (2016-2020) yes the correction is higher than the prev. all time high. I guess you can never really assign a pattern to these things.

patterns only work until everyone sees the pattern then people bet against or plan early to beat the pattern, thus breaking the pattern
there are many reasons why the 20k-16.5k are outliers because based on a hourly chart numbers show spikes to those. but on daily/weekly they do not which show difference between a few odd people getting extremely luck vs the real value-premium opportunities that many could get
(in short not everyone got the opportunity to sell at max high of 2017 and max low of 2022)

however
expecting a $50k(lucky few if any) after 2025 ATH is stretching things a bit too far below previous ATH of $70k
a SAFE bet would be to treat $70k(opportunity for masses) as bottom rather then waiting and hoping to see $50k, because it might not get to $50k

remember the social and speculation of most:
being online, available, cash despostited and ready to press button and able to precicely decide "now is the time" and pick the exact bottom of $50k instead of wishful thinking "what if it went to $48k ill wait a bit longer.. "and then mis out completely

This actually makes sense. Yes, 50 % from the top is good bet without any other tools to estimate tops and bottom. I think $140,000 is conservative for the top.

current mining economics of value premium acquisition costs put this part of 2024 at $25k-$140k (and thats based on actual math of mining cost)
so $140k is an achievable max.. where as $200k if hashrate stays same is not achievable today of there was a FOMO/HYPE moment

all those claiming $500k by 2025 ATH would only be correct if the mining economics 3x in the next 18 months

so safe bet is the $140k limit(based on math of planets mining cost premium)