Quote from: Darker45 on Today at 03:51:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 04, 2024, 05:39:00 AM

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Indeed, Bitcoin is better than gold in many aspects, but I don't see it overtaking gold anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I don't think Bitcoin's market cap will come close to gold's in the next decade. The huge potential is there, of course, but it will certainly take a much longer term for a new hodler to gain what could be reached in a mere blink of an eye in the past.

For now, 4 years is more or less enough for a Bitcoin investor to be of profit. To those who will come late, however, those who will finally do the buying at $100,000, $120,000, or $150,000, a price they deserve, 4 years might not be enough for their investment to even double. In which case, a simple business venture might fare better.

Of course, we are free to have any kind of speculative view and/or framework that we like in terms of the likely sharpness of bitcoin's future price direction curve.. and/or how exponential it is likely to be.

I personally don't find anything wrong with being largely conservative, and I never really changed my expectations too much in regards to a kind of 6% per year (on average) price appreciation, even though I learned about the 200-week moving average and I have been somewhat obsessed with developing price theories around that in the past 3-4 years (and maybe it has been a bit longer than that), but I think that PlanB might have kind of subliminally sucked me into using the 200-WMA. Both my fuck you status chart and my ideas around sustainable withdraw gravitate around the 200-WMA.

So essentially I agree with you about past performance not being able to ensure future results, and also that we are likely to ongoingly continue to experience a lessening of the growth curve, yet at the same time, we likely cannot deny that even relatively gradual ongoing and upwards progression is likely to continue to have quite exponential effects upon bitcoin's overall market cap and that we should not be treating bitcoin as even close to being a mature asset class.

Just to repeat to you my overall tentative punchline, it seems to me that bitcoin could well get to between 1x and 20x of gold's market cap within this cycle or perhaps within 1-2 more cycles into the future, and then I am tentatively thinking that the range between 20x and 1,000x of gold's market cap might take quite a bit longer to play out.. maybe 20 to 200 years.. but of course if bitcoin becomes the world's reserve currency and the base of the monetary system, then surely there would likely be a quite a few other unknowables that likely would be in play, including other inventions and other ways in which value comes into the world.. so if we might be considering the current addressable market getting close to $1 quadrillion, yet even if we are not inflating away the values, it may well be that the total addressable market could even grow 10x, 20x or even more than that, especially if we are looking 80 years to 200 years into the future.^**

** By the way, I think that it is important to point out that bitcoin's lowest ever performance of the increase in the 200-week moving average played out between June 2022 and November 2023, and that was at a rate of 20% annualized, and so I am not even proclaiming that the rate is not going to go lower than 20% annualized, yet the fact that the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, we are able to use it as a measure to figure out if we might need to make adjustments in our own valuations of our BTC holdings... which I also think that I attempt to accomplish that in my fuck you status chart projections of the bottom (the 200-WMA) continuing to have a decreasing slope, which implies that there could be periods of time in which it also might go negative, even though I keep it going upwards in that particular chart that projects out to 2074 (based on limitations of the page's memory).

I am not really opposed to ideas in which current investors should attempt to be somewhat conservative in their overall expectations of bitcoin's price growth, yet they might end up screwing themselves if they are overly conservative and fail/refuse to adequately prepare psychologically and/or financially for some fo the various more bullish scenarios. which may contribute to their selling too much too soon or maybe not even investing into bitcoin because they believe it has topped or that there are various other competing projects (such as shitcoins or even fiat-reliant investments) that have abilities to compete with bitcoin in terms of longer terms trajectories..

and the power of monetary soundness.. that, in the line of Gresham's law principles causes all value to gravitate towards the soundest of monies, which is currently bitcoin and there is no evidence that any thing is going to come even close to being able to compete with bitcoin, absent some kind of a new revelation of some kind of bitcoin flaw. So anyhow your own numbers seem to be way overly conservative, even though it does not hurt to have them in mind as possibilities or even a base case (even though they are likely not really seeming to account for what bitcoin really is).

Quote from: GreatArkansas on Today at 04:53:36 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on February 04, 2024, 04:27:12 AM

(...)
Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

You have a point here, but you must consider those days about "easily rewarded about x10, x1000,x2000". Those days are high risk, no one knows what will be the future, so for me, it's high-risk high reward happened before and all who experienced, them deserve it.
For now, we must appreciate what we have now, especially in Bitcoin, x2,x3,x5 is enough already if you really looking for investment.

It is true that the upside potential for bitcoin is somewhat obviously reduced - especially when starting out from zero, and even if we start to measure from early 2012 (when BTC prices were around $5), we still end up with quite large exponential BTC price growth in the past 12 years.

Even given all of those kinds of appreciation for bitcoin's growth, we likely can still recognize that bitcoin likely has a stronger investment thesis today than it had at earlier times, even if we consider bitcoin from 2017 when the fork wars had resolved some issues in regards to bitcoin's resilience. So yeah, part of the punchline with a stronger investment thesis does also come with less upside potential.. but also less downside potential... even though the possibility of going to zero never completely disappears, but bitcoin's having a strong investment thesis likely comes from the fact that scenarios of it going to zero have been concluded as being less and less and less likely with the passage of time (a real world application of the Lindy Effect).

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:30:20 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 04, 2024, 02:26:34 AM

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This is what I was saying that we must see previous price charts of Bitcoin and see how price moved over last 13 years. In Dec 2017, 19k$ was ATH but today we have 67K$ as ATH. Year or two from today may be we have 100k$, 0.5M as ATH - Who knows?

Sure we cannot ignore the various all time highs, and maybe part of the reason I get so nervous in regards to bitcoin about trying to figure out what to do or how to think about bitcoin from various ATHs is that they have tendencies (and likely inevitabilities for the coming 20 years or more) to be all over the place and way less reliable than attempting to use BTC price bottoms (such as the 200-week moving average) in order to attempt to get some kind of bearing upon where we are at and where we are likely going....

.. which to me seems to be a kind of tension between an investor and trader way of thinking about bitcoin holdings.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:30:20 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 04, 2024, 02:26:34 AM

Sure if the DCA person does not have any lump sum that is available, then he is looking at his discretionary/disposable income and deciding how much he is able to invest based on those kinds of limitations, so he can be as aggressive as he is able to be, but yes, he is limited by his discretionary/disposable income.. which is the difference between his income and his expenses.... but within that he could choose to invest 100% of his disposable/discretionary income, and that might be aggressive.. .. and surely if anyone is investing 100% of his discretionary/disposable income, he is going to need to have some variations of emergency fund, float and/or reserves in place.. even if non of that is authorized to be allocated (or invested) into bitcoin.

It again comes down to understanding the market. Whether you are going for DCA or Lump Sum one need to understand that he is investing for long duration and it may take some time before his investment will be in profit. There is possibility that we start investing and price start going up but this may not be the case every time.

I don't have any problems with that kind of an assessment, even though if we are attempting to look at this realistically, there can be justification of several BTC accumulation techniques (referring to DCA, lump sum and buying on dips) being carried out simultaneously and being reassessed from time to time - since surely guys are going to want to maximize their ability to catch dips if they can, yet at the same time, at any given time, it may or may not be practical to be waiting for dips.

So if a guy is just starting out, then yeah he has a certain amount of value that he might be considering for his initial investment and he might spread that over 6 months... but then once he has already made his investment, then he merely has whatever income (cashflow) is coming to him on a regular basis which might be paid weekly or monthly or some other period, and he will be deciding as it comes in whether and/or how much to allocate to bitcoin, the same would come to be the case if he got some kind of lump sum extra come in such as a bonus, or some discovery of some value that he had available or maybe he sold some property (or asset), as then at the point that the extra cash comes available he can decide which of the three categories and how much he wants to allocate.. which is lump sum, DCA, buying on dips.. ..

Sometimes the categories can overlap, because even if he gets some kind of extra bonus or something like that, and if he always buys right away when he gets the money (or within a couple of weeks), then he may well be employing DCA, even though he has lump sum amounts, and if he is waiting for the price to go down to certain price points he is employing buying on dips (even if he might be delaying of spending a lump sum that he has), so what we call it may well depend upon how we structure it... and the extent to which we try to strategize the taking advantage of dips, and so some of the disagreement and quibbling may well have to do with getting caught on semantics rather than attempting to figure out context in order to explain what you are doing and whether you might attempt to employ a variety of strategies or stick with some strict ways of investing that may well be less flexible, but sometimes it can be important to follow some strict ways of investing rather than trying to overly strategize, especially when it comes to bitcoin.. and many times guys getting worked up about getting BTC at the lowest price that they can, but then at the same time they might end up being inadequately prepared for up.

Quote from: avp2306 on Today at 09:41:42 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on Today at 03:51:19 AM

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That's why we are here trading bitcoin and not gold since we find it more bullish than gold in terms of profit gaining in some time span since gold takes a long time before we can feel that we are on profit.

Some of us are investing and not trading in bitcoin, even though I get your point about both bitcoin's volatility to the upside and also bitcoin's volatility in general likely makes it better for trading, but I consider it a bit less preferable to trade bitcoin, since bitcoin is amongst the best, if not the best asset known to mankind.. so why should anyone be trading such a pristine asset rather than holding it, unless merely trading with a relatively small portion of his holdings.

Quote from: avp2306 on Today at 09:41:42 AM

Compare to bitcoin that anything is possible especially if there's a huge news that can hype the market and help to build up the demand.

yes... there is a stair-stepping dynamic in bitcoin, and from time to time it unexpectedly stair-steps up a bit, and never comes back down, which largely means that you should be in the investment at the time rather than fucking around and not being in the investment, which is also part of the additional justification to invest rather than trade bitcoin.

Quote from: avp2306 on Today at 09:41:42 AM

4 year cycle might really best especially that halving season will occur and that's good timeline for anyone to sell their bitcoins if they want to cashout their profits for deciding to hold on that timeline.

Why would anyone want to sell the best asset known to man?

Sure sell a bit of it, but mostly hold seem to be the best idea, except maybe if someone has already reached a high over accumulation of BTC then they might just be regularly selling as the BTC price goes up because they already have too many BTC.

But if you are selling in order to accumulate more, that seems dumb (or at least short-sighted).

Quote from: avp2306 on Today at 09:41:42 AM

Also whatever price they decide to buy I think its still fine as long as they can afford it and there's still huge potential for bitcoin to rise up especially if the demand still strong in future.

But are we trading or are we holding? I can see from either perspective, even though surely I appreciate the longer term ways of thinking about bitcoin.

Maybe to flesh it out a bit. Buying at whatever price is fine when someone has a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, but it also could be fine for someone who is valuing their purchase of bitcoin in terms of dollar profits that they can get and they buy and then they just sell at some point that the BTC price is higher or that the BTC price more or less reaches some kind of short-term (short-sighted) dollar price that they are seeking to achieve.