Quote from: Gormicsta on February 13, 2024, 08:23:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 12, 2024, 08:14:29 PM

[edited out]

Due to its uniqueness, Bitcoin has the potential for a significant asymmetric reward, which implies that the upside is far greater than the downside.

I would describe asymmetric bet a bit differently.

My understanding of asymmetric bet is that if you do not use leverage, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you have invested; however, if various bullish cases for bitcoin play out, then you have chances to double, triple, 10x, 100x, 1,000x your investment, depending on your timeline and depending on how bullish bitcoin ends up playing out - in the event it does end up playing out bullishly rather than flat or bearishly.. but even if it ends up playing out flat or bearishly, you are not going to lose any more than 100% of what you had invested (so long as you do not use leverage).

So you seem to be sort of correct that when you are assessing possible outcomes for bitcoin and your investment into it, you are weighing one price direction versus the other side (down versus up), but also you should be factoring the magnitude of upside that is possible, including that you do not necessarily need to invest large portions of your wealth and still end up having potentials for benefiting greatly...

Consider some of the guys who might have invested $10k or less into bitcoin 8-12 years ago, and yeah of course, the earlier they invested the better, yet $10k for some folks might have had been a whimpy investment.. and even a $1k investment in 2012 might have gotten you close to 200 bitcoin, and surely some folks might consider that amount to have had been pretty whimpy, and so the return ended up being way more disproportionate to the upside as compared to the amount invested or the amount put at risk, even if you consider opportunity costs of the invested money and even if you consider that the money devalued over the next 8-12-ish years, depending on when the guy got into bitcoin.

So even today, the upside potential of bitcoin might well not be as great in terms of multiples and or magnitude in which BTC could appreciate - even given a potential $50k investment price, yet bitcoin's investment thesis is not weaker today, and there are some BIG institutions that are just coming into bitcoin, and they would have had never invested into bitcoin when it was lower prices because its marketcap was not enough and there were not enough other BIG players investing into bitcoin, and so these days some of the upside potential and strength of bitcoin's investment thesis is ONLY beginning to be known, which likely reinforces the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis,

even for some of the folks who might be investing into bitcoin but hardly having any clues in regards to what it is and they also may ONLY be investing into bitcoin through some kind of an investment vehicle (such as through spot BTC ETFs), merely based on the idea (someone may have told him or maybe he comes up to that idea himself) that number might go up.. I am not even suggesting that superficial ideas about bitcoin or even market sentiment would be good reasons to invest into bitcoin, even though those reasons do end up exacerbating bitcoin's likelihood to go up and even end up disproportionately putting a lot of extra upwards price pressures on bitcoin, since by law the spot BTC ETF managers have to maintain BTC holdings that match the BTC exposure that their clients have elected through the purchase of the spot BTC ETF shares that are purchased (or sold) by the client.

Quote from: Gormicsta on February 13, 2024, 08:23:52 PM

Because of the enormous potential payoff, it is often profitable to take a chance on Bitcoin, despite the inherent risk. It's similar to playing the lottery; but with far better odds. And I couldn't agree more with you on how you pointed out that it's not just about investing in Bitcoin, it's also about having your financial life in order and making sure you're not over-extending yourself.

In my opinion Finding a way to keep up with their other financial obligations is one of the biggest challenges for anyone looking to invest in Bitcoin. It's easy to get caught up in the hype and excitement of Bitcoin and lose sight of the fact that you still need to pay your bills and have money for emergencies.

It is funny (and/or strange) that frequently many normal people end up devolving into gambling practices when they invest because they do not adequately understand their own finances and psychology.. and sure, maybe they don't even need to have any kind of strong psychology as long as they set up their finances in such a way that is not devolving into gambling practices..

And, so I frequently claim that an overwhelming majority of people have abilities to manage their own finances, count how much income they have versus their expenses and to ONLY invest with their extra money (disposable/discretionary income that is the difference between their income and their expenses), yet part of the problem that they run into is that they do not employ enough discipline to both 1) think through their own finances for 3-6 months into the future (and continue to project into the future) and 2) to employ practices that make sure that they maintain enough of a cash cushion so that they will never have to dip into their investment (BTC in this case), so they frequently will end up using bitcoin (or anything else that they invest into) as part of their emergency fund, which remains a form of gambling that is likely to catch up with them the longer that they try to dance such sloppiness in their own practices..and it would be within their abilities to actually fix their errors if they were to spend some time thinking through the basic kinds of money management practices and employing those kinds of basics that would be to prepare themselves to never get into trouble and be forced to have to sell some or all of their investment (bitcoin in this case) at a time that is not 100% of their own preplanning and choosing.

Quote from: Gormicsta on February 13, 2024, 08:23:52 PM

To invest in Bitcoin, some people might even be tempted to take out loans or incur debt, which is not a wise move. It is crucial to keep in mind that you should never invest more money than you are willing to lose.

Sure leverage tends to be dangerous, and it is a more advanced technique. I am not opposed to leverage and/or taking out loans, but you have to have way to pay and service the loan that are other than being based on the anticipated price appreciation of the asset (bitcoin in this case).

Quote from: Gormicsta on February 13, 2024, 08:23:52 PM

Quote from: MusaPk on February 12, 2024, 06:49:52 PM

I feel comfortable with long term strategy and since I don't have huge capital I accumulate in DCA manner. What I have learn so far is that time matter a lot if you are in bitcoin. The longer you have ability to hold more is your chances of great ROI. If you don't believe that then go check yourself from previous data. There will be more risk if you are investing for short duration. With time as we invest, the more we come to know about how to accumulate bitcoin for the long term.

You've hit the nail on the head when you say that one of the most crucial elements in investing in Bitcoin is time. Your chances of getting a good return on your investment increase with the length of time you can hang onto your Bitcoin. Similar to a snowball effect, your investment will increase over time. Additionally, as you mentioned, you'll gain more knowledge on how to maximize your investment over time. The misconception that most people have when investing in Bitcoin is that it's a get-rich-quick scheme, but that's clearly not the case and that if they just start investing in Bitcoin, they'd be rich in a month or two, and this infact is the actual reason why most Bitcoin investors go into the short-term trade and they end up loosing money and giving Bitcoin a bad name, they go all in without really having the knowledge of what they are doing and then at the end incur losses for themselves. Bitcoin is more of a long-term game, and if you really wanna rip the true benefit of Bitcoin, then going long-term will definitely help you achieve that.

So yeah.. 4-10 years or longer would be a good way to think about any bitcoin that you buy to have at least that kind of timeline, so if you are DCAing into bitcoin for 6 years straight, then your earliest BTC buys would have had reached investment timelines of 4-10 years or longer, but your latest purchases would not have had very much time to appreciate in value, so if you keep investing into BTC, then any new purchases, would also have 4-10 years or more for those later investments so you would likely see ways to measure the price appreciation of your various coins and the various purchase times, which seems to be partly what the tool of this thread would be helping longer term HODLers to be able to measure.. even though you may also have your own records and/or your own spreadsheet that might give you various numbers, but also you might be tracking your average cost per BTC which surely is different from the cost of your various BTC purchases that might end up being spread out over a decade or more.. once you are in bitcoin for a long enough time, you would likely have coins fitting in the various timeline categories - especially if you mostly held the coins rather than trading them and confusing your records.. and surely guys may end up doing a lot of things, besides merely holding their coins that may or may not end up working to their advantage if their goals might be to accumulate more BTC with the passage of time.. .

Quote from: Questat on February 13, 2024, 08:54:29 PM

Holding really matters in investing in Bitcoin but it doesn't mean we have to do this our whole life. If we take a look at the price chart, prices are growing but can we think this will be the same trend in the next few years? Not for sure and it was uncertain. So I could say that holding will not be forever as it also depends on the market situation. Selling our Bitcoin during the bull season is a perfect option IMHO and get on the train back again once the market correction starts. But yes, this needs strong hands because waiting for 4 years is not as easy as people think as we need to deal our emotions as well.

How will you know that it is time to sell?

And what if you don't have enough bitcoin, then how is selling going to help to keep you in the right mindset for accumulation and ongoingly building of your BTC stash rather than fucking around with attempts at getting in and out that either might not pay off, or might even cause you to spend way too much waiting when you should just be accumulating BTC..

ON the other hand if you have accumulated a lot of BTC, and if they are mostly in profits, then why would anyone be trying to fuck around with selling them and trying to get back in, unless maybe they are just selling a small portion of their stash at various price points.

If you have been in BTC since around the time of your forum registration date in February 2016, then has your tactic outperformed a relatively strict DCA practice? Do you know how to measure such a thing?

And wow.. look at your forum registration date? In 2 days, you are coming upon 8 years registered on the forum.. and so if you had invested $100 per week over the last 8 years, you would have had invested right around $42k into BTC, and you would have had accumulated right around 13.6 BTC (worth right around $673.2k - so clearly right around 16x price appreciation. Even if your amounts were not the same, is your current BTC holdings valued around 16x price appreciation based on whatever you had been doing over the last 8 years?

Quote from: romero121 on February 13, 2024, 10:44:10 PM

Quote from: Questat on February 13, 2024, 08:54:29 PM

Holding really matters in investing in Bitcoin but it doesn't mean we have to do this our whole life. If we take a look at the price chart, prices are growing but can we think this will be the same trend in the next few years? Not for sure and it was uncertain. So I could say that holding will not be forever as it also depends on the market situation. Selling our Bitcoin during the bull season is a perfect option IMHO and get on the train back again once the market correction starts. But yes, this needs strong hands because waiting for 4 years is not as easy as people think as we need to deal our emotions as well.

Here, what we're talking about is the retirement life, particularly a successful early retirement. Life will be enjoyable when we are able to make the future comfortable. Throughout his life, he isn't sacrificing anything or holding, he's just investing €500 every month without thinking about the market situation. This has now turned into a lot of money in terms of USD. As suggested, selling at the peak and buying back is a good choice, but for people who don't want to take risks, this is also a wise choice to make a better portfolio in cryptocurrency.

I agree with everything you said romero121 - except we are talking about bitcoin in this thread.. so I don't know why you chose to use such a dumbass vague term, because DCA does not apply to shitcoins.. so it is difficult to know what you meant if you chose not to use the word bitcoin. Are you talking about bitcoin or something else, and if you are talking about bitcoin, then why the fuck did you not use the word bitcoin? fuck shitcoins.. and dumbass vague, amorphous and misleading language that does not even really communicate anything except maybe that the person that is using that dumbass word does not know what is bitcoin or they are trying to act like they are smarter, when the use of the word makes them look dumb, since DCA does not apply to shitcoins...especially not in any kind of general way.. .. and even if you try to point out any specific shitcoin, it probably would not apply to that particular shitcoin either. but you did not point out any particular shitcoin that you might have had been thinking about when you used that word perhaps to try to appear smart, when you accomplished the opposite and may have mislead some of us at the same time regarding what the fuck you are talking about.