Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:39:27 AM

[edited out]

Mate, you raise a very good point. In fact, one of the most popular pieces of advise offered to novice Bitcoin investors is to wait for a bear market and purchase at lower prices rather than making a purchase during a bull market.

If anyone is giving advice to newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) to wait rather than getting the fuck started, then that would not be good advice. That would likely be bad advice, even though people can do whatever they like in terms of their own level of preparedness for UPpity that may or may not happen.

In other words, you are not prepared for UPpity at all if you either do not have any coins or if you are low on coins (by definition if you are a low coiner you are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for up). The most practical way to prepare for UP is by having some coins.. even though there could be some other ways that might be less efficient to get some (or perhaps a sufficient/adequate) BTC price exposure to be prepared for up.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

This is due to the fact that Bitcoin prices frequently rise sharply during bull markets before plunging once again during bear markets.

Where are you presuming bitcoin to be right now? Bull or bear? and which part? and how do you know?

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

Of course, timing the market isn't always simple, and there's no assurance that the price will rise again following a collapse.

There are no guarantees and yeah you cannot time the market, so part of the reason to get started right away, even though you cannot really know if the BTC price might go up or down from the specific BTC price point in which you get started. If you think that you have some theories about price direction, you could adjust the amount of your invested amount at your entrance point and you can attempt to assess your level of preparedness for either UP or DOWN based on your own circumstances.. and surely, it is important to be prepared for both UP and for DOWN, but if you have no coins, you are only preparing for UP, which surely would be problematic and not advisable, even though people are free to do whatever they like (including sitting around like a dummy), even if it ends up being wrong.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

However, this method may have a flaw in that it takes a lot of patience.

Waiting for down that might not happen is not a demonstration of patience, it is demonstration of dumbness.

Cheesy

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

The price of Bitcoin might decline for several months or even years in a bear market.

That is true. But it might not, too. It might go up and never come back to these prices ever again. Which is more likely and are you prepared for either? Hopefully you are prepared for either rather than just waiting for one side and that side may well not end up happening.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

So, this might not be a good choice for those trying to make a quick profit.

4-10 years or longer might be a good idea for anyone just getting started... so yeah, shorter terms might just be gambling, even though if you have an investment timeline of less than 4 years, then maybe you could just adjust your position size downwardly in order to account for your being a trader rather than an investor.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

It's also important to remember that not everyone who obtains Bitcoin does so with the intention of investing in it; some use it for other things, like making purchases or sending money internationally. Therefore, while waiting for a bear market can make sense for some people, it might not be the best course of action for others.

Sure.. not everyone is an investor.... so those kinds of situations are going to have a lot of variables. A part of the reason that it is easier to talk about investment theses in bitcoin is to understand bitcoin in that sense, even though surely you are correct that there are a variety of short term use cases, and there are also some people who are good at trading, but those kinds of people should be able to figure out their shit themselves.. or maybe go to threads that talk about those kinds of topics..

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 03:45:33 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:58:51 PM

I just added a link to the above linked post, since yesterday - in this post, I clarified Hypos 1-6 and added scenarios for Hypos 7-15 (which largely bring down the timeline with Hypos 7-9 as 2.5 years, Hypos 10-12 as 1.25 years and Hypos 13-15 as newbie status.

Even though the overall theme is to attempt to show both how the difference of time can play out, but also how the difference in wealth at the time of getting started with bitcoin, I realize that some of the information might be a bit too confusing for some people to follow, so I may go back through the Hypos from time to time to try to edit and clarify the presentation of the contents.

You are correct that they all use DCA, but also ONLY the wealthiest incorporates both lump sum and DCA, since he can.. the others are exclusively DCA. The wealthiest who starts out with both DCA and lump sum is reflected in Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13. The medium only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 2, 5, 8, 11 & 14. The poorest only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 3, 6, 9, 12 & 15.

I appreciate the effort you've put by taking the time to clarify this. It can be tricky to present complex information in a way that's understandable and easy to follow. I appreciate you also taking the time to go back to edit the Hypos, and I think your approach of separating them into three different categories based on the wealth of the person is really helpful. Could you tell me more about why you chose to include lump sum and DCA strategies in the wealthy category, and only DCA in the other?
Not just me, I believe some other persons would be curious to know.

I appreciate any comments, feedback and/or criticisms of those hypos.. so yeah, thanks for looking through them.

Yesterday when I went back to them, I was having a little bit of difficulty remembering why I had created them in the first place, and I had thought that they had some other information in them, so I was a bit frustrated when I needed to add a summary regarding the results of each of the categories.

I believe that my initial idea in creating the categories in the way that I did was because once the frameworks were established, then guys should be able to extrapolate other kinds of results.. but the main points were being made that involve showing how various investment approaches would vary over time, and of course, I wanted to be able to mostly emphasize ongoing DCA into each of the models because historically it has remained an important constant in bitcoin that can be measured in terms of its historical results, and I still believe that historical results does not guarantee future results, even though we can see through the various hypotheticals where guys would currently be based on varying timelines and perhaps whether they might have had some abilities to lump sum invest and/or DCA.. and most people should be able to employ some version of DCA as long as they have some discretionary/disposable income.

There surely are going to be some guys who would have had been able to beat strict variations of DCA, even within the timelines of the given hypotheticals, and so I don't have any problems with that, but I do have some problems with guys making arguments that proclaim some kind of generally applicable system that involves suggestions that they are able to beat DCA.. or they have it all figured out when to buy and when not to buy, and to suggest that newbie normies should follow such systems that they are likely not even able to articulate with any kind of clarity, and likely more than 90% of people are not even capable of developing some kind of a BTC trading system that would match or beat some variation of ongoing consistent buying that involves DCA, especially over longer periods of time such as when we are getting into 5-10 year timelines.

Sure there are ways to trade and even be profitable and even to be able to consistently beat the market or to beat some kind of a strict DCA approach, but those tend to be both specialized people and also not applicable to around 90% of the population who might not have time and/or abilities to engage in such tactics or to learn such tactics.