Quote from: oda.krell on April 24, 2014, 05:11:39 PM

And here I was thinking you would have finally come to embrace TA.

To be clear: at this point, I belive that the most naive TA (linear or exponential extrapolation) may have some value for very short time periods (a couple of days), in very special circumstances. (That is what I am testing wiith that Slumber stuff.)

Certainly there is some information about the fundamentals encoded in the price, and some of the fundamentals have long-lived trends; so in theory there is some hope that TA could pick up those trends and give more precise and accurate estimates than the log-brownian model. However, in practice it seems that the useful "signal" is so small compared to the "noise" that the trends detected by TA are mostly derived from the "noise". Therfore, any perdiction based directly on fundamentals is bound to be infinitely more reliable than one based on price history alone.

Specifically, I do not believe that what the price was or did in 2012 has any bearing on what it will do next month. Especially when we know that the market and environment have radically changed since then, so there cannot be any significant fundamental factor whose evolution has remained unchanged for these two years.

If the price had been 2000 USD back in 2009, for some reason, and crashed to 0.005 in 2010, why would that reason and that crash have any influence on the the Chinese traders' behavior tomorrow?

Averaging over long time spans can improve the "signal"/"noise" ratio, but only if there is a "signal" in the fundamental factors that lasts that long. Even for car manufacturers the fundamental factors -- like steel production, salaries, consumer demand, etc -- can change radically over a couple of years. What then for bitcoin, whose "fundmental factors" are all virtual, and can go from 0 to 100 and back in a matter or hours?

Even if the past prices had useful information about future prices, what happened in the last two months surely should be much more important than what happened a year ago.

Quote from: oda.krell on April 24, 2014, 05:11:39 PM

This is a bit off-topic, but will you stick around when price pulls up again?
I'm not even being sarcastic or anything, I really just genuinely wonder. I mean, I'm pretty bearish right now, but I have very little doubt it'll turn around eventually.
And I'd actually be interested to see what your posts will look like once we're at that point.

You surely did not pay attention, but aftter the end-of-March crash I predicted that the price would reboud to the previous levels (~550 USD) if the Caixin article turned out to be false. I may even have been the most bullish bull at the time.

But I don't know if I will be around for long, whether the price goes up or down, Everything gets boring eventually...