Quote from: maknyos on March 24, 2024, 10:54:34 PM

Overall, AC Milan has a better chance of securing 3 points even though they are playing away, it would be a big surprise if Fiorentina were able to beat AC Milan. Statistically, the reputation of Pioli squad is certainly better in Serie A, and the depth of AC Milan squad is also much better. I agree with you, the result of the match seems likely to be a draw. Currently, Fiorentina is very ambitious to finish in the European zone, but they do not have the strength to surpass AC Milan, so the best result that Fiorentina can possibly achieve is a draw, which sounds fair for both teams.

Milan does have a bigger chance than Fiorentina even though they are visiting because the distance between the two in the points table shows that Milan is better than Fiorentina, but Fiorentina's statistics when facing Milan are also not too bad. The chances of both are almost equal Fiorentina is 35% while Milan has a 37% chance of a draw both are still possible considering that recently Fiorentina has achieved more draws than wins so I think the best result that Fiorentina can achieve is a draw to get 1 point.

Milan actually doesn't want to just achieve a draw, they want to immediately widen the gap with Juventus so that the point difference between the two gets wider and Juventus doesn't have the opportunity to overtake Milan who is in 2nd place because the point difference between the two is currently still relatively small, so if one day Milan is careless and loses point Juventus can use their time to shift Milan's position.

But even so, Milan has actually had a better performance than Juventus recently so I am sure that even though Milan achieved a draw when they played away at Fiorentina's headquarters, this will not happen continuously and Milan certainly also hopes that Juventus will also achieve a draw because Juventus will face Lazio who theoretically has almost the same performance as Fiorentina.