Quote from: temple on March 25, 2024, 04:28:48 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on March 24, 2024, 03:47:51 PM

Quote from: temple on March 24, 2024, 02:28:18 PM

I have had a look and I couldn't believe that the bookmakers seem to have big faith in Arsenal and valued them as the real favorite. To give you an idea, they put Arsenal at 1.99, so let's say at 2.0, and they put Bayern Munich at 3.59.

I agree that the odds for Bayern Munich winning this game should be relatively high as it is a game away from home and it is against the team that is leading the Premier League. But given how the game developed recently for Bayern, do you think that Arsenal winning the game at 1.99 is correctly marked by the bookmakers? Even if it is marginal, it is a bit below 2.0 and I did expect something with a 2. coming first.

I don't think that Arsenal's chances of winning that game are that high. At least I wouldn't bet on it at those odds. I think it is always a good indicator to think about potential odds that someone would be willing to put money on an outcome and for me this would be more between 2.5 and 3.0, but it would definitely not be worth it when you get just under 2.0.

I don't understand why you are surprised. Do you think that the leader of the Premier League cannot win at least one home game out of two against the second Bundesliga team (current quotes suggest exactly this)?
Does the fact that Bayern in recent games have heavily beaten the outsiders of the Bundesliga and the 9th team in Serie A (Lazio) somehow change the fact that Bayern has been playing very weakly all season? Compared to Arsenal, which has been going smoothly all season, Bayern is truly an outsider.

I said

Quote

for me this would be more between 2.5 and 3.0

, by which I mean the odds for Arsenal to win that home game. Where did you take logic and mathematics that you translate my sentence into

Quote

cannot win at least one

? As you can see, I am sure you are a smart guy and I assume you had some education in mathematics + logic or you are probably self-taught to a certain degree. I was trying to understand your comment, but whatever way I twist your words, I can't help but come up with a lot of interpretations for what I said. But your interpretation is not part of the solution set.

I never said that Arsenal can't win that home game. I discussed the odds and found it surprising that they put Bayern into the underdog role by quite a bit! That's all I said and I concluded that the odds are not worth a bet for me, this may be different for you.

But it's all good, I only don't like these over interpretations of someone has said. My take still is that I expected odds of 1/X/2 to be more in a more narrow range.

Hmm... I thought there was direct logic here (I leave all the quotes so that the dialogue is visible from the very beginning): odds 2 (which seemed dubious to you) means that this event will occur with exactly 50% probability (let’s not waste time and remember about the bookmaker’s margin ). That is, if Arsenal can win one of the two games against Bayern, then odds 2 are fair. And in my opinion, Arsenal, as the leader of the Premier League, in a home game against the second Bundesliga team is obliged to win one game out of two (50% on average = odds 2 on bookmaker language).
As I understand from your comment, you think that Arsenal should be listed in the range of 2.5-3, and this means that Arsenal is not capable of winning one game out of two against Bayern on average.